流域内各区域用水量与经济发展脱钩分析及用水量驱动力分解——以淮河流域为例

发布时间：2018-02-25 09:15

  本文关键词： 用水量 脱钩弹性分析方法 驱动力分解 淮河流域　出处：《资源开发与市场》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用脱钩弹性分析方法评价淮河流域内河南、安徽、江苏和山东各区域用水量和经济发展之间的脱钩状态,分析各省的脱钩发展趋势,对比总体脱钩状况。同时,利用完全分解模型把用水量驱动力分解为人口效应、经济规模效应和技术效应,分析三大效应对用水量的具体影响。结果表明:淮河流域内各区域具有不稳定且状况较差的脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩的变化过程,脱钩状态随时间发展逐渐改善;各区域总体脱钩状况存在差异性:山东江苏河南安徽;同时,三大效应的贡献率大小为:经济规模效应技术效应人口效应,经济发展因素主要增加用水量,技术因素抑制用水量。因此,应把握好经济规模效应和技术效应,努力改善经济发展结构,提高技术效应强度,以达到强脱钩的理性状态。
[Abstract]:The decoupling state of water consumption and economic development in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces in Huaihe River Basin was evaluated by using decoupling elastic analysis method, the development trend of decoupling was analyzed, and the overall decoupling status was compared. Using the complete decomposition model, the driving force of water consumption is decomposed into population effect, economic scale effect and technical effect. The three effects on water consumption are analyzed. The results show that the process of decoupling, weak decoupling and strong decoupling in Huaihe River basin is unstable and poor, and the decoupling state improves gradually with the development of time. There are differences in the overall decoupling situation among different regions: Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, and the contribution rates of the three effects are as follows: economic scale effects, technical effects, population effects, and economic development factors mainly increase water consumption. Therefore, we should grasp the effect of economic scale and technology, improve the structure of economic development and enhance the intensity of technical effect so as to achieve a rational state of strong decoupling.
【作者单位】： 南京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然基金青年项目“基于奈特不确定性理论的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究”(编号:71403122) 江苏省自然基金青年项目“流域水资源关键脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究(编号:BK20140980) 教育部人文社科基金青年项目“基于影响因素风险预测的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究(编号:14YJC630018)
【分类号】：F127;TV213.4
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本文编号：1533826