基于WEAP模型的丽江市水资源供需平衡分析

发布时间：2018-03-06 09:30

本文选题：WEAP　切入点：丽江　出处：《长江科学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：丽江市地处青藏高原与云贵高原交界地带,地形复杂,海拔落差大,是西南地区典型的山地型城市,水资源开发利用难度大、利用率低。同时,丽江市存在季节型缺水、工程型缺水、管理型缺水的严重问题,近年来更是频繁遭遇特大灾旱,且丽江坝子经济特别是旅游业的飞速发展,打破了水资源可持续利用的平衡。因此,旨在解决丽江市水危机的研究应大力开展,这些研究对政府决策起到强有力的科学支撑作用。水资源优化配置是当前解决水资源开发利用问题最有效的手段,在丽江市建立水资源供需模拟系统并对其进行水资源供需平衡分析可为该区域的相关研究提供必要的工具和参考信息,以点带面,促进整个西南地区水资源管理规划的研究。本文基于水资源评价和规划模型(Water Evaluation and Planning System,WEAP),利用2010年丽江市三大产业用水数据及社会经济的相关统计资料,建立丽江市水资源供需平衡分析模型,对全市的地表水资源系统进行模拟,分析丽江市地表水空间分配,并验证该模型在研究区域内的适用性。并根据丽江市未来经济发展规划与气候变化情景对2030年丽江市水资源供需情况进行预测,基于本项研究的成果,提出相应的水资源管理建议以及下一步研究的方向。本文研究进展和结论如下:(1)基于WEAP模型建立丽江市水资源供需平衡分析模型,并利用相关数据估算了关键参数,提高了该模型在研究区域内的模拟能力与可信度。(2)2010年丽江市的用水需求量为7.26亿立方米。农业为主要用水需求,占水需求总量的70%,全市共18%的需水量未得到满足。(3)到2030年,由于社会经济的发展,丽江市水资源供需缺口率达到25%以上,气候变化将使缺口率再扩大2个以上的百分点。
[Abstract]:Lijiang is located at the junction of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Yungui Plateau. It is a typical mountainous city in southwest China with complex topography and large drop in elevation. It is difficult to develop and utilize water resources and has a low utilization rate. At the same time, there is a seasonal water shortage in Lijiang City. In recent years, the serious problems of engineering water shortage and management water shortage have been frequently encountered by special disasters and droughts, and the rapid development of Lijiang dam economy, especially tourism, has upset the balance of sustainable utilization of water resources. The research aimed at solving the water crisis in Lijiang City should be vigorously carried out, which plays a strong scientific supporting role in government decision-making. The optimal allocation of water resources is the most effective means to solve the problem of water resources development and utilization. The establishment of water resources supply and demand simulation system in Lijiang city and the analysis of water resources supply and demand balance can provide necessary tools and reference information for the relevant research in the region. Based on the water Evaluation and Planning system of water resources evaluation and planning model, this paper uses the water use data of the three major industries in Lijiang city in 2010 and the relevant statistical data of social economy, based on the research of water resources management planning in the whole southwest of China. A water supply and demand balance analysis model is established to simulate the surface water resources system in Lijiang city and analyze the spatial distribution of surface water in Lijiang City. According to the future economic development planning and climate change scenarios of Lijiang City, the water resources supply and demand situation of Lijiang City in 2030 was predicted, based on the results of this study. The research progress and conclusion in this paper are as follows: 1) based on the WEAP model, the analysis model of water resources supply and demand balance in Lijiang City is established, and the key parameters are estimated by using the relevant data. In 2010, the water demand of Lijiang City is 726 million cubic meters. Agriculture is the main water demand, accounting for 70% of the total water demand. A total of 18% of the water demand of the whole city has not been satisfied by 2030. Due to the development of social economy, the gap rate of water resources supply and demand in Lijiang is over 25%, and climate change will enlarge the gap rate by more than 2 percentage points.
【学位授予单位】：长江科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

【相似文献】