大坝原址重建施工导流风险特性研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 15:53

本文选题：大坝重建　切入点：施工导流　出处：《工程科学与技术》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着中国后水电开发时代的到来,大坝重建工程逐渐增多。大坝重建工程导流系统一般由原工程建筑物和新建导流建筑物联合组成,导流系统的组成和功能的丰富化使导流系统约束和导流风险因素更加复杂,导流风险呈现显著的特异性。本文旨在探索大坝重建工程施工导流风险计算方法及其变化规律。在大坝重建工程导流系统分析的基础上,归纳主要致险因素和致险模式,研究建立上游水位、下泄流量、下游水位等致险模式的数学表达,综合建立大坝重建工程导流多维风险判别式。针对系统中的洪水不确定性,利用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数描述洪水峰量联合分布,同时考虑原工程控泄规则和导流泄水建筑物的运用规则,利用Monte-Carlo方法模拟导流度汛过程并计算水力要素,结合风险判别式建立大坝重建工程施工导流多维风险计算模型。定性风险分析说明,建筑物的功能和设计标准差异决定了大坝重建工程导流系统的多种致险模式并不完全相关,导流系统风险呈显著多维分布特征。由于风险特性与导流系统配置有关,针对将原大坝作为上游围堰,占用原工程泄流建筑物出口的典型重建工程导流系统,进行了导流风险计算。定量风险特性分析说明:导流风险存在从下游漫顶致险模式向原坝泄水致险模式的转移点,主导致险模式转移的驱动因素是导流系统的泄流量,转移点对应下游围堰可防范的风险上限。研究成果为大坝重建工程导流风险评价和方案优化提供了重要支撑。
[Abstract]:With the coming of the era of post-hydropower development in China, dam reconstruction projects are gradually increasing. The diversion system of dam reconstruction projects is generally composed of the original engineering buildings and the newly built diversion buildings. The enrichment of the composition and function of the diversion system makes the constraint and risk factors of the diversion system more complicated. The purpose of this paper is to explore the calculation method of diversion risk and its variation law in dam reconstruction project. Based on the analysis of diversion system of dam reconstruction project, the main risk factors and risk modes are summarized. This paper studies the mathematical expression of hazard models such as upstream water level, discharge discharge and downstream water level, and synthetically establishes the multi-dimensional risk discriminant for diversion of dam reconstruction project, aiming at the flood uncertainty in the system. The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function is used to describe the joint distribution of flood peak volume, and the original engineering control and discharge rules and the application rules of diversion and discharge structures are taken into account. The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the flood diversion process and calculate the hydraulic elements. The multi-dimensional risk calculation model of diversion in dam reconstruction project is established by combining with risk discriminant. Qualitative risk analysis shows that the difference of building function and design standard determines that many risk modes of diversion system of dam reconstruction project are not completely related. The risk of diversion system is significantly multi-dimensional. Because the risk characteristic is related to the configuration of diversion system, the diversion system of typical reconstruction project, which uses the original dam as the upstream cofferdam and occupies the outlet of the original project discharge building, is studied. The quantitative risk characteristic analysis shows that the diversion risk has a transition point from the downstream overtopping risk model to the original dam discharge risk mode, and the main driving factor leading to the risk mode transfer is the discharge of the diversion system. The transfer point corresponds to the upper limit of the risk which can be prevented by downstream cofferdam. The research results provide important support for the evaluation of diversion risk and the optimization of project for dam reconstruction project.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司;广东粤港供水有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379164)
【分类号】：TV551.1

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