三江源区径流长期变化趋势对降水响应的空间差异

发布时间：2018-03-09 14:27

本文选题：三江源　切入点：降水变化　出处：《环境科学研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为探究三江源区径流长期变化特征的空间模式,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、双累积曲线法和GIS技术,分析1957—2012年三江源区降水和径流的变化趋势,以及径流对降水响应关系的空间差异.结果表明:1957—2012年三江源区有67.1%的区域年降水量呈显著增加趋势;47.3%的区域径流深变化趋势不显著,45.4%的区域显著增加;其余7.3%的区域内降水变化不显著但径流深显著减少.长江源区绝大部分区域降水量和径流量都显著增加,径流量增速达0.616 9×108m~3/a.澜沧江源区在降水显著增加或变化不显著的情况下,径流深无显著变化或显著减少.黄河源区内部差异很大,降水呈增加或无显著变化趋势,径流深则呈无显著变化或显著减少趋势.除澜沧江源子曲外,三江源区年径流深和降水量呈显著线性正相关,Pearson线性相关系数为0.51~0.87.径流量对降水量的响应关系存在明显的空间差异性,可以分为稳定型、波动型、上升型及下降型4种类型,并以稳定型为主,涉及面积占三江源区总面积的48.9%;其次为下降型和波动型,分别占32.8%和12.9%;上升型涉及面积所占比例最小,仅为5.5%.研究显示,三江源区61.8%的区域内径流对降水的长期响应关系并未发生明显变化,或者在波动中保持相对稳定的关系.
[Abstract]:In order to explore the spatial model of the long-term variation of runoff in the source region of the three rivers, the trends of precipitation and runoff in the source region of the three rivers from 1957 to 2012 were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall trend test, double cumulative curve method and GIS technique. And the spatial difference of runoff response to precipitation. The results show that 67.1% of the regional precipitation in the source region of the three rivers in the year 1957-2012 showed a significant increase trend, 47.3% of the regional runoff depth change trend is not significant, 45.4% of the regional runoff depth significantly increased; In the remaining 7.3% areas, the precipitation change was not significant, but the runoff depth was significantly decreased. The precipitation and runoff increased significantly in most regions of the source region of the Yangtze River, and the runoff growth rate reached 0.6169 脳 10 ~ 8 m ~ (3 / a) a. The Lancang River source region increased or did not change significantly in the case of significant increase or no significant change in precipitation. There is no significant change or decrease in runoff depth. There is a great difference within the source area of the Yellow River. The precipitation shows an increasing or no significant change trend, while the runoff depth shows no significant change or significant decrease trend. The Pearson linear correlation coefficient of annual runoff depth and precipitation is 0.51 ~ 0.87. There are obvious spatial differences in the response of runoff to precipitation, which can be divided into four types: stable type, fluctuating type, rising type and descending type. The stable type is the main type, the area involved accounts for 48.9% of the total area in the source area of the three rivers, followed by the descending type (32.8% and 12.9), the fluctuation type (32.8% and 12.9), the ascending type having the smallest proportion of the area involved, which is only 5.55.The study shows that, The long-term response of runoff to precipitation in 61.8% of Sanjiangyuan region has not changed obviously or maintained a relatively stable relationship during fluctuation.
【作者单位】：北京林业大学水土保持国家林业局重点实验室;青海省水土保持局;青海省环境科学研究设计院;
【基金】：中国工程院咨询研究项目(2014-XZ-31-3)
【分类号】：P333.1

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