基于DEA和Malmquist指数的区域水资源利用效率动态变化解析

发布时间：2018-03-12 16:04

本文选题：水资源调控　切入点：水资源用水效率　出处：《合肥工业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于中国不同地区水资源量的差异非常明显,因此如何选用正确的方法对中国水资源的利用进行合理调控,是中国现阶段亟需解决的重大问题。山东省是中国东部地区的重要省份之一,水资源紧缺是山东省现在乃至未来很长一段时间一直面临的严峻问题,是制约国民经济和社会快速发展的重要因素。论文以山东省为研究区域,以当前最严格水资源管理制度模拟中的“用水效率约束红线”作为限制条件,以数据包络分析法为理论基础,运用Malmquist指数方法对山东省用水效率进行分析研究。首先,运用数据包络分析法对山东省水资源的利用效率进行静态分析,在此基础上,再运用数据包络分析法对该省17个市区2011、2012年的用水效率进行分析评价,然后,在数据包络分析法的基础上,采用Malmquist指数计算和分析了山东省17个市区2003-2012年的序列数据。最后,运用Malmquist指数从时间角度和空间角度对山东省17个市区的用水效率进行动态变化分析。研究结果表明：在时间序列上山东省水资源用水效率普遍不高；技术进步是影响山东省17个市用水效率的关键因素,提高用水效率另一有效途径是对产业结构的优化；山东省各市区全要素生产率发展不均衡,应充分发挥区域特点,加强区域合作；山东省沿海城市的用水效率明显高于内陆城市,东部地区用水效率高于西部以及中部地区,全省中中部地区的用水效率最低。
[Abstract]:Because of the difference of the amount of water resources in different regions China is very obvious, so how to choose the correct way to use China water resources reasonable regulation, Chinese is a major problem to solve at the present stage. Shandong province is one of the important provinces in the eastern region of China, the shortage of water resources is a serious problem in Shandong province now and in the future for a long time has been facing, is an important factor restricting the rapid development of the national economy and society. This thesis takes Shandong Province as the study area, with the most stringent water management system in the simulation of water efficiency constraints as the constraints, the red line "with the data envelopment analysis as the theoretical basis, using the analysis research to the Shandong province water efficiency the Malmquist index method. Firstly, using data envelopment analysis on the utilization efficiency of water resources in Shandong province is analyzed on the basis of this, then the use of data DEA analysis and evaluation, for 20112012 years the water efficiency of 17 cities in the province and in the data envelopment analysis method based on the Malmquist index was calculated and analyzed 2003-2012 years of data sequence 17 urban areas in Shandong province. Finally, by analyzing the dynamic changes of 17 areas in Shandong province from the perspective of water efficiency and the space angle between using the Malmquist index. The results show that: in the time series of water resources in Shandong province water efficiency is not high; technological progress is the key factors influencing the water use efficiency of 17 cities in Shandong Province, to improve the water use efficiency is another effective way to optimize the industrial structure; the city of Shandong Province, the total factor productivity development is not balanced, should give full play to regional characteristics, to strengthen regional cooperation; the coastal city of Shandong province the water use efficiency was significantly higher than that of the inland city, the eastern region is higher than the western water efficiency And central region, the middle and central region of the province's water efficiency is the lowest.

【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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