社会水循环演变的经济驱动因素归因分析

发布时间：2018-03-13 00:04

本文选题：社会水循环　切入点：演变　出处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2016年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用水资源投入产出模型分析社会水循环演变的经济驱动因素。在水资源投入产出模型中,利用2008年经济普查数据进行了分行业用水量的推算,并开发出23个部门的水资源投入产出模型;改进了国内学者普遍使用的模型中,中间投入没有考虑进口产品对水资源投入影响的问题,另外在分析中考虑了经济发展方式转变对社会水资源通量演变的影响。最后得出,1992—2005年,节水型技术进步对社会水循环通量的增加贡献是1 037.39%,最终需求对社会水循环通量的贡献是-1 122.31%,中间投入技术进步贡献为-126.86%,需求结构变化贡献为190.97%,行业结构需求变化为120.81%。即在没有技术进步的情况下,最终需求的增加会使现在的社会水循环通量增加10倍以上。在1992的最终需求下,现有的节水技术进步使得社会水循环通量减少90%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the economic driving factors of the evolution of the social water cycle are analyzed by using the water resources input-output model. In the water resources input-output model, the water consumption by industry is calculated by using the 2008 economic census data. And developed the water resources input-output model of 23 departments, improved the model commonly used by domestic scholars, the intermediate input did not consider the impact of imported products on water resources input. In addition, in the analysis, the influence of the transformation of economic development mode on the evolution of social water resources flux is considered. Finally, from 1992 to 2005, The contribution of water-saving technology progress to social water circulation flux is 1 037.39, the contribution of final demand to social water circulation flux is 1 122.31, the contribution of intermediate input technology progress to social water circulation flux is-126.86, the contribution of demand structure change is 190.97, and the industry structure demand is changing. In the absence of technological progress, The increase in final demand will increase the current social water circulation flux by more than 10 times. Under the final demand in 1992, the current water-saving technology has reduced the social water circulation flux by 90%.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所;中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CGL091) 国家自然科学基金重点项目(50939006)
【分类号】：F223;TV213.4

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