西北地区城市群水资源承载力研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 21:56

本文选题：城市群　切入点：水资源承载力　出处：《石河子大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水是地球生命之本,人类文明之源,水资源与人类的关系一向是互相联系互相作用,一方面水是人维持生命进行生产的不可缺少的资源,另一方面人类经济社会活动的范围、程度又直接影响到水资源的质和量。水资源作为一种基础性资源,对生命支持系统和经济发展起到重要的支撑作用,其可持续开发利用是区域健康持续发展的首要条件。随着经济社会的快速发展和城市化的快速推进,世界共同面临水资源欠缺和水环境破坏的严峻问题,水资源不再是无穷无尽、源源不断的自然资源,而越来越成为一种限制性的资源。2013年提出“丝绸之路经济带”构思以及中巴经济走廊,我国西北地区处于“丝绸之路经济带”的焦点区域,随着“丝绸之路经济带”的提出以及相关配套措施的推进,该区域内具有若干高密度集聚、地处交通枢纽的城市群,作为承载丝绸之路经济带战略实践的焦点地带,必将成为海内外开发投资的热门地区。尤其是西北地区干旱缺水,生态系统脆弱,水资源面临非常严峻的形势,“丝绸之路经济带”建设给人口集聚、经济快速发展的城市群带来新的机遇,同时也带来了巨大的压力,水资源承载力能否支撑其经济社会发展关系到该区域城市群能否实现健康、可持续的发展。基于此,本文从城市群水资源条件、经济条件、社会条件、生态环境条件等四个方面对西北地区城市群水资源承载力评价,首先采取基于熵权的集对分析对各城市群及群内城市水资源承载力评价,其次运用指数平滑法短期预测各城市群水资源承载力,评价结果表明:2006-2014年西北地区各城市群水资源承载力水平不停提升,水资源承载状态不断完善,但总体程度仍较低,且水资源条件、经济社会条件、生态环境条件之间有着明显差异,除克拉玛依、吐鲁番外,群内其余各城市水资源承载力均有所改善;其中关中—天水、兰白西城市群水资源承载力较高,水资源条件较好但经济社会条件较差,水资源有可开发空间,经济社会发展潜力较大;酒嘉玉、银川平原、天山北坡水资源承载力较低,水资源条件较差,而经济、社会条件相对较高,在区域发展过程中需重点关注水资源的可持续利用问题。短期预测结果表明2015-2019年,西北地区各城市群水资源承载力将有进一步的改善,但增速缓慢,总体程度仍偏低,其水资源承载力仍有待更大程度的提高。此中,关中—天水城市群水资源承载力仍然位于5大城市群之首,水资源承载力明显提升,银川平原城市群水资源承载力水平将有显著提升,其年均增幅远高于其余城市群,兰白西城市群水资源承载力呈现缓慢增长趋势,天山北坡城市群水资源承载力水平变化不是很大,酒嘉玉城市群水资源承载力水平略有变动,呈现缓慢下降趋势。基于以上结果,本文提出要在合理选择城市发展规模以及采用相关配套保障措施的基础上,通过提高水资源可利用量、合理控制人口、调整产业发展结构、加强水生态保护促进水资源自我循环等措施结构性的提升各城市群水资源承载力。
[Abstract]:Water is the life of the earth, the source of human civilization, the relationship between water resources and human has always been linked each other, hand water is life sustaining production indispensable resources, on the other hand, the scope of human economic and social activities, and directly affects the quality and quantity of water resources as water resources. One of the basic resources of the life support system and economic development plays an important supporting role, its sustainable utilization is the primary condition for regional sustainable development. With the rapid development of the rapid development of economy and society and the city, the world facing severe problems the lack of damage to water resources and water environment, water resources is no longer Everfount inexhaustible, natural resources, and is increasingly becoming a limiting resource.2013 the Silk Road Economic Belt "conception, Pakistan Economic Corridor, Northwest China In the area of focus Silk Road Economic Belt ", with the" Silk Road Economic Belt "and related supporting measures in advance, the region has a number of high density clusters, located in the transportation hub of the city group, as bearing with strategic practice focus areas Silk Road economy, will become a hot area overseas investment. Especially in arid region of Northwest China, fragile ecosystems, water resources facing a very serious situation," the construction of Silk Road Economic Belt "to the concentration of population, the rapid economic development of the city group has brought new opportunities, but also brought great pressure, can support its economic and social development in relation to the regional city group can achieve the health of water resources carrying capacity, sustainable development. Based on this, this article from the city water resources conditions, economic conditions, social conditions, environmental conditions and other four party In the face of the northwest city of water resources carrying capacity evaluation, first take the entropy set based on analysis and evaluation of each city group and a group of inner city water resources carrying capacity, followed by the use of exponential smoothing method for short-term prediction of water resources carrying capacity of the city group, the evaluation results show that: 2006-2014 years of each city agglomerations in northwest water resources carrying capacity the level of continuous improvement, and constantly improve the water resources carrying state, but the overall level is still low, and the water resources conditions, economic and social conditions, there are significant differences between ecological and environmental conditions, in addition to Karamay, Turpan, the water resources within the group more than the city carrying capacity were improved; the Guanzhong Tianshui, blue white West City water resources with high bearing capacity, water resource is good but the economic and social conditions, water resources development space, potential economic and social development greatly; wine Jiayu, Yinchuan plain, water resources in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains The bearing capacity is low, the water resources conditions, economic and social conditions, relatively high, in the process of regional economic development should focus on the sustainable utilization of water resources. The short-term prediction results show that 2015-2019 years, the city water resources in Northwest China Group will have further improved the bearing capacity, but the growth rate is slow, the overall level is still low. Still more to improve the water resource carrying capacity. In addition, Guanzhong Tianshui still located in the 5 largest city in the first group of city water resources carrying capacity, improve the carrying capacity of water resources, water resources in Yinchuan plain city group bearing capacity level will be significantly improved, the average annual growth rate is far higher than the rest of the city group showed a slow growth trend, the bearing capacity of white orchid west city group of water resources, water resources in North Tianshan mountain city group carrying capacity change is not large, wine Jiayu group of city water resources carrying capacity level slightly change slowly. A downward trend. Based on the above results, this paper will adopt relevant measures based on the reasonable choice of city development scale and, by increasing the amount of available water resources, the reasonable control of the population, the adjustment of industrial structure development, strengthen ecological protection of water resources to promote water self circulation structural improvement measures of each city groups of water resources carrying capacity.

【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】