考虑滞时的水库群短期优化调度风险分析模型

发布时间：2018-03-20 02:12

本文选题：水流滞时　切入点：联合调度　出处：《人民长江》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：水库群优化调度的风险分析问题一直是研究的焦点,而在短期优化调度研究中,水流滞时的处理问题更是研究的难点。因此,按照风险识别-风险估计-风险评价与决策的思路,建立了考虑滞时的水库群短期优化调度风险分析模型。首先选取来流预报误差与滞时因子作为短期优化调度的主要风险因子,接着采用随机模拟的方法对主要风险因子进行估计,进而以耦合的两主要风险因子作为模型输入,得到所定运行策略下所面临的风险率,最后将所建模型应用到雅砻江流域的短期优化调度中。结果表明该模型不仅操作简单而且兼具实用性,无论对发电计划的制定还是水库的运行管理方面都有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The risk analysis of optimal operation of reservoirs is always the focus of the research, and in the study of short-term optimal operation, the problem of dealing with the lag of water flow is even more difficult. According to the idea of risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and decision-making, The risk analysis model of short-term optimal operation of reservoir group with time-lag is established. First, the prediction error and lag factor of incoming flow are selected as the main risk factors of short-term optimal dispatching. Then the main risk factors are estimated by the stochastic simulation method, and then the coupled two main risk factors are used as the input of the model, and the risk rate under the given operation strategy is obtained. Finally, the model is applied to the short-term optimal operation of the Yalong River basin. The results show that the model is not only simple to operate, but also practical, and has important guiding significance for the formulation of power generation plan and the operation management of reservoir.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学可再生能源学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279062,51179069) “十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0402208) 中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(JB2015169;2016MS51;2014ZD12)
【分类号】：TV697.12

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