长江流域近期水沙变化趋势及成因分析

发布时间：2018-03-21 17:52

本文选题：趋势分析　切入点：Mann-kendall检验法　出处：《灌溉排水学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用双累积曲线法分析了2000—2013年长江流域7大水文站水沙变化关系,基于Mann-kendall检验法和Yamamoto突变检验法研究水沙变化趋势和突变年份。结果表明,屏山、朱沱和寸滩站的双累积曲线较为顺直。宜昌、沙市、汉口和大通站则均在2005年发生转折,斜率减小,输沙量大幅减小;长江干流径流量的变化趋势较为平稳,发生突变的现象少,仅屏山站于2001—2002和2005—2006年发生突变,而输沙量的变化趋势则较为明显,常发生强突变现象,且宜昌、沙市、汉口和大通站均无虚假点出现;造成长江干流2000年以来输沙量显著减小的主要原因是三峡水库的蓄水运用和水土保持工作的持续开展,而降雨量下降是导致径流量减小的因素之一。
[Abstract]:The relationship between water and sediment changes at 7 hydrological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 2000 to 2013 was analyzed by using the double cumulative curve method. The trend and year of water and sediment change were studied based on Mann-kendall test and Yamamoto mutation test. The double accumulative curve of Zhutuo and Cutan stations was straight and straight. In Yichang, Shashi, Hankou and Datong stations, the slope decreased and the sediment discharge decreased in 2005, and the trend of the runoff of the Yangtze River was relatively stable. Only Pingshan station had mutation in 2001-2002 and 2005-2006, but the change trend of sediment transport was obvious, and there were no false spots in Yichang, Shashi, Hankou and Datong stations. The main reasons for the significant decrease of sediment discharge in the main stream of the Yangtze River since 2000 are the water storage and utilization of the three Gorges Reservoir and the continuous development of soil and water conservation, and the decrease of rainfall is one of the factors leading to the decrease of runoff.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：水库下游最低通航设计水位研究,中央专项(413000038)
【分类号】：P333

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