基于ANP水电工程导流方案多目标决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 04:39

本文选题：导流工程　切入点：多目标决策　出处：《西南石油大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：施工导流贯穿水电站建设全过程,涉及到电站整体的规划、投资、进度、后期效益的实现等,其地位可谓是重中之重。因而在选择导流工程方案时,使其达到安全可靠、工期短、投资省、效益高显得尤为重要。基于此,论文对施工导流方案的多目标比选决策进行了研究,提出了基于网络层次分析(ANP)的比选决策模型。本文首先从导流工程风险主要来源,自然因素、施工风险因素进行了分析总结,对全年导流围堰的堰前水位超过围堰设计挡水位的风险率进行了计算,采用决策树法对自然因素和施工因素风险加权求和,得到全年导流方案和枯期导流方案的综合风险。其次,在工程安全、质量、环保水保达到相应国家标准的前提下,分析了导流工程多目标比选决策通常采用的四个元素：工期、费用、施工难易度以及风险率,并结合工程实践增加了“工程效益”元素,对增加“工程效益”元素后构成的五个元素的相关性进行了进一步的分析论证。通过对层次分析法(AHP)、网络层次分析法(ANP)、理想点法(TOPSIS)、主成分分析法(PCA)和因子分析法(FAM)的原理、适用范围分析,基于导流工程方案决策元素的分析,针对元素之间的相关性以及定量指标不易量化的特点,采用网络层次分析法(ANP)建立多目标决策模型。模型求解过程中选择定性与定量相结合的方式,运用三标度法构造判断矩阵,并通过最优传递矩阵计算方式替代一致性检验,减少了工作量。最后,将以上研究成果应用于作者工程实践的李家湾水电工程导流方案的比选中,建立李家湾水电工程导流方案ANP决策模型,得到方案的比选决策结果。此结果与各参建单位推荐的最终方案一致,说明运用ANP决策模型对导流方案进行比选,贴合实际,具有简洁性、可操作性和使用性。
[Abstract]:Construction diversion runs through the whole process of hydropower station construction, which involves the whole planning, investment, progress and realization of later benefit of the hydropower station, and its status is the most important one. Therefore, when selecting diversion project, the project is safe and reliable. Because of the short construction period, low investment and high efficiency, this paper studies the multi-objective selection decision of construction diversion scheme, and puts forward a decision-making model based on network hierarchy analysis (NAHP). In this paper, the main risk sources, natural factors and construction risk factors of diversion engineering are analyzed and summarized, and the risk rate of water level in front of diversion cofferdam exceeding the designed water level of cofferdam is calculated. The decision tree method is used to sum up the risks of natural factors and construction factors, and the comprehensive risk of annual diversion scheme and dry period diversion scheme is obtained. Secondly, on the premise that the project safety, quality and environmental protection reach the corresponding national standard, the paper analyzes the four elements commonly used in the multi-objective selection decision of diversion engineering: time limit, cost, construction difficulty and risk rate. Combined with engineering practice, the element of "engineering benefit" is added, and the correlation of five elements after adding "engineering benefit" element is further analyzed and demonstrated. Based on the analysis of the principle and scope of application of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Network Analytic hierarchy process (NPP), ideal Point method (TopSISN), Principal component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FAM), based on the analysis of decision elements of diversion project, In view of the correlation between elements and the difficulty of quantifying quantitative indexes, a multi-objective decision-making model is established by using the network analytic hierarchy process (ANPs). In the process of solving the model, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods is chosen. The three-scale method is used to construct the judgment matrix, and the consistency test is replaced by the optimal transfer matrix calculation method, which reduces the workload. Finally, the above research results are applied to the comparison and selection of the diversion scheme of Lijiawan hydropower project in the author's engineering practice, and the ANP decision-making model of the diversion scheme for the Lijiawan hydropower project is established. The result is consistent with the final scheme recommended by the participating units. It shows that the application of ANP decision model to the comparison and selection of diversion schemes is practical, concise, operable and practical.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV551.1

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