变化环境下大汶河流域径流响应研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 21:13

本文选题：SWAT模型　切入点：大汶河流域　出处：《济南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：变化环境下径流响应研究已成为当今社会研究的热点问题之一。气候变化和人类活动作为变化环境的重要体现和组成部分,对流域的径流变化带来了不同程度的影响。合理地分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响并分析二者的贡献率显得极为重要,同时也成为了变化环境下径流响应研究的一个难点。本文以大汶河流域为研究区,应用SWAT模型进行研究,对模型进行敏感性分析及率定和验证,将率定好的模型应用到大汶河流域,模拟其径流变化。本次研究主要得出以下结论:(1)应用SWAT模型对该流域进行研究,将流域划分为35个子流域,326个水文响应单元。对参数进行敏感性和不确定性分析,确定适合该流域的参数敏感性范围。用戴村坝水文站1998-2015年和莱芜水文站1981-1987年的月径流数据对模拟的数据进行率定和验证,结果表明,Ens、R2都大于0.6,都符合SWAT模型的评价标准,说明SWAT模型能较好的应用于该流域。(2)通过使用Mann-Kendall突变分析方法和累积距平法对流域各时段年降雨量、年平均气温的变化进行趋势和变化点分析,分析气温和降水的变化情况。1998年为气温和降水的突变年,近26年气温的年平均气温为13.4oC,并且约以0.47 oC/10a的速度增长,降水的年平均降水量为755.7mm,并且约以54.9mm/10a减少。为流域径流的模拟研究提供一定的参考依据。(3)分析各气候情景变化下的流域年均径流的变化可知:降水变化对径流的影响要高于气温对径流的影响。降水每增加10%,径流平均约增加18.3%。气温每增加1oC,径流平均约减少4.1%。(4)分别研究了1985年、2000年、2015年三期土地利用在相同气候情境下的径流变化,得出气候环境相同的情况下,2000年土地利用下的径流最大,其次是2015年,最小的是1985年土地利用下的径流。(5)分析极端土地利用情景变化下的径流变化率可知:情景三(草地)下年均径流值最大,其次是情景二(林地),情景一(耕地)的年均径流值最小。(6)土地利用和气候变化都导致径流不同程度的变化,其中土地利用变化明显大于气候变化的作用。就年径流变化而言,大约90%是由土地利用变化造成的,而气候变化对径流的影响仅占10%。因此,在以后的大汶河流域水资源管理中要注意土地利用趋势并采取相应的管理措施,以促进大汶河流域水生态环境的健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The study of runoff response under changing environment has become one of the hot issues in the society. Climate change and human activities are important embodiment and component of changing environment. It is very important to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, and to analyze their contribution rate. At the same time, it has become a difficult point in the study of runoff response in the changing environment. In this paper, the SWAT model is used to study the runoff response in the Davin River Basin, and the sensitivity analysis and rate determination of the model are carried out. In this study, the following conclusions are drawn: 1) the SWAT model is used to study the river basin. The basin is divided into 35 subbasins with 326 hydrological response units. The sensitivity and uncertainty of the parameters are analyzed. The sensitivity range of parameters suitable for the basin was determined. The monthly runoff data of Dacumba Hydrological Station from 1998 to 2015 and Laiwu Hydrologic Station from 1981 to 1987 were used to confirm and verify the simulated data. The results showed that both of them were more than 0.6, and all of them met the evaluation criteria of SWAT model. It shows that the SWAT model can be applied to the basin. (2) by using the Mann-Kendall mutation analysis method and the cumulative anomaly method, the trend and the change point of the annual rainfall and the annual mean temperature in each period of the basin are analyzed. The variation of air temperature and precipitation was analyzed. 1998 was the abrupt year of air temperature and precipitation. The annual average temperature of nearly 26 years was 13.4oC, and it increased at a rate of about 0.47 oC/10a. The annual average precipitation is 755.7 mm, which is reduced by 54.9mm/10a. It provides a certain reference basis for the simulation study of watershed runoff. The effect of air temperature on runoff is higher than that of temperature. For each increase of precipitation, the average increase of runoff is about 18.33.For each increase of air temperature, the average decrease of runoff is about 4.1cm).) the runoff changes of land use in 1985, 2000 and 2015 under the same climate conditions were studied respectively. When the climate is the same, the runoff under land use was the largest in 2000, followed by 2015. The minimum was runoff under land use in 1985.) the runoff rate under extreme land use scenarios was the highest under scenario 3 (grassland), and the average annual runoff value was the highest in scenario 3 (grassland). Secondly, scenario 2 (forestland, scenario 1 (cultivated land), the minimum annual runoff value. 6) Land use and climate change all lead to the change of runoff in different degrees, in which the change of land use is obviously greater than the effect of climate change. About 90% are caused by land use change, and the impact of climate change on runoff is only 10%. Therefore, in the future water resources management of the Davin River Basin, attention should be paid to land use trends and corresponding management measures should be taken. In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the water ecological environment in the Davin River Basin.
【学位授予单位】：济南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P333.1

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