区域产业结构与用水结构的协调分析评价

发布时间：2018-03-30 03:26

本文选题：产业结构　切入点：用水结构　出处：《合肥工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：产业结构与用水结构是影响区域经济发展的两个重要因素，研究它们的关联性与协调程度对于区域的经济增长、人民生活水平的提高具有极为重要的意义。为确定中国经济发展与水资源之间的联系，在中国经济发展、产业结构及水资源的现状分析基础上，采用VAR模型对经济增长与水资源进行协整分析、Granger因果检验及脉冲响应分析。为分析区域经济发展与用水结构的协调性问题和响应关系，以产业结构高度化水平、区域科技发展水平、对外开放水平、能耗水平为参考建立产业结构评价指标，以各行业用水消耗水平、可持续发展水平、居民生活用水结构水平为参考建立用水结构评价指标，，构建区域产业结构与用水结构协调评价体系，建立区域产业结构与用水结构在时间和空间维度上的协调度评价模型。对全国经济及水资源原始数据进行处理计算，用层次分析法和熵值法确定指标权重，代入协调度评价模型得到全国产业结构与用水结构协调度水平排名。结果表明，中国经济增长与水资源之间存在长期稳定联系；经济增长是工业用水、农业用水变化的原因，总用水量的增加可引起GDP的增长；工业用水及农业用水对于GDP均有约束作用，且工业用水对GDP的影响较大；全国产业结构与用水结构在时间上基本协调，且有向中度协调发展的趋势；产业结构水平不容乐观；最后提出了调整产业结构、优化用水结构的相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:Industrial structure and water use structure are two important factors affecting the development of regional economy. It is of great significance to study their relevance and coordination for regional economic growth and the improvement of people's living standard. In order to determine the relationship between China's economic development and water resources, and on the basis of the analysis of China's economic development, industrial structure and current situation of water resources, VAR model is used for cointegration analysis of economic growth and water resources. In order to analyze the coordination problem and response relationship between regional economic development and water use structure, the industrial structure is of high level. The level of regional scientific and technological development, the level of opening to the outside world and the level of energy consumption are taken as the reference to establish the evaluation index of industrial structure, the level of water consumption in various industries, the level of sustainable development, the level of water use structure of residents as the reference to establish the evaluation index of water use structure. A coordinated evaluation system of regional industrial structure and water use structure is constructed, and the evaluation model of coordination degree between regional industrial structure and water use structure in time and space dimension is established. The raw data of national economy and water resources are processed and calculated. The index weight is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, and the rank of coordination degree between industrial structure and water structure is obtained by adding the evaluation model of coordination degree. The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between economic growth and water resources in China. The economic growth is the reason of the change of agricultural water use, the increase of total water consumption can lead to the increase of GDP, both industrial water and agricultural water have binding effect on GDP, and industrial water has a great influence on GDP. The national industrial structure and water use structure are basically coordinated in time and have the trend of moderate coordinated development; the level of industrial structure is not optimistic; finally, the corresponding policy suggestions for adjusting industrial structure and optimizing water use structure are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4;F124

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