基于BP人工神经网络模型的后期扶持移民风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 21:51

本文选题：后期扶持移民　切入点：风险评价　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：依据国务院文件[2006]17号文件《国务院关于完善大中型水库移民后期扶持政策的意见》和2011年国家进行的后期扶持移民人口的核定结果：我国水库后期扶持移民的总数已经达到2381万人,我国自1949年建国以来,为了促进国民经济和社会发展,兴建了一大批水库,在防洪、发电、灌溉、供水和保护生态环境等多方面发挥了巨大效益。为了维护移民权益和库区社会稳定,国家先后设立了库区维护专项基金、库区建设专项基金建设、后期扶持专项基金。但是,物价上涨过快、各个地方因为财政原因导致的移民后期扶持政策不统一、移民直接受益不够、与经济发展不相符的扶持标准偏低等各方面原因,导致仍然有相当数量的移民生活在贫困之中,可能面临诸多来自经济、社会、生态环境等方面的风险,例如经济收入低、收入来源单一、缺乏创业技能和发展致富渠道。移民风险是严重社会问题发生的前兆,如果不能妥善的安置和帮助扶持移民恢复到原来生活水平、发展生产,必然会引发移民风险,影响库区和移民安置区的地区社会稳定。因此,全面的研究后期扶持移民风险,系统总结移民风险管理与风险防范、水库移民风险评价与风险控制的方法和原理,是做好移民工作的前提条件,是水库发挥经济效益和社会效益的重要保障。因此,对后期扶持移民风险进行评价和分析具有重要意义。本文以风险管理学、经济学、社会学等相关理论为基础,综合应用风险管理理论、多方博弈理论、人工神经网络理论和BP算法等理论研究方法,结合定性分析与定量评价方法,在大中型水库移民后期扶持政策实施情况监测评估的基础上,对后期扶持移民风险进行了系统全面的分析和量化评价,提出了几点后期扶持移民风险评价和风险防范的建议。具体研究内容有： (1)结合我国水利水电工程移民风险的相关理论,建立了后期扶持移民风险基础理论,根据我国后期扶持移民风险的含义、特点及风险类型,分析了后期扶持移民风险的产生原因,运用演化博弈论分析了后期扶持移民风险演化的原理。 (2)在大中型水库移民后期扶持工作要求的基础上,遵循指标体系构建的完备性、科学性、可靠性、针对性、可行性和简明性原则,参考国务院1033号文件《后期扶持政策实施情况监测评估指标体系》,建立了后扶移民风险评价指标体系。 (3)应用BP人工神经网络原理,在大中型水库移民后期扶持政策实施情况监测评估数据的基础上,建立了后期扶持移民风险评价模型。本文选取河南省淅川县进行了实例研究,对淅川县后期扶持移民平均的风险程度进行量化评价,验证了在后期扶持移民风险评价中应用BP人工神经网络模型的合理性。 (4)提出了移民风险防范的建议。依据后期扶持政策解决后期扶持移民温饱问题和移民安置区基础设施薄弱的突出问题的近期目标、加强库区和移民安置区基础设施和生态环境建设,改善移民生产生活条件,促进经济发展,增加移民收入,使移民生活水平不断提高到当地农村居民的平均水平的远期目标,从后期扶持移民风险控制的时间节点出发,提出了几点在移民风险不同阶段进行风险防范和控制的建议。
[Abstract]:According to the documents of the State Council document No. [2006]17 "State Council on supporting the immigrant population improvement of the large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy opinions and the 2011 national of the approved results: the total number of China's support for reservoir resettlement period has reached 23 million 810 thousand people in China since 1949, in order to promote national economic and social development, the construction of a a large number of reservoirs in flood control, power generation, irrigation, play a huge benefits in various aspects of water supply and protection of the ecological environment. In order to maintain the reservoir immigrant rights and social stability, the state has set up a special fund for reservoir maintenance, reservoir construction special fund construction, late support special fund.
However, prices rose too fast, because each of the local finance causes the resettlement support policy is not uniform, immigrants directly benefit enough, support low standards and other reasons are not consistent with the result of economic development, there are still a considerable number of immigrants living in poverty, may face many from economic, social, ecological and environmental risk etc. for example, the low income, single source of income, lack of entrepreneurial skills and the development of the rich channels.
Immigration risk is a precursor to serious social problems, if not properly placed and help support the immigrants to restore the original living standards, the development of production, will inevitably lead to immigration risk, influence of reservoir area and resettlement area social stability in the region. Therefore, immigration risk comprehensive research support system, summarize the immigration risk management and risk prevention the method and principle of immigration control, risk assessment and risk of the reservoir, is a prerequisite for the resettlement work, is an important guarantee for reservoir play economic benefits and social benefits. Therefore, the latter support immigration risk evaluation and analysis has important significance.
In this paper, risk management, economics, sociology and other related theories as the foundation, the comprehensive application of risk management theory, game theory, research methods of artificial neural network theory and BP algorithm theory, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation method in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation based on the monitoring and evaluation of the late. Support the immigration risk evaluation analysis and quantitative comprehensive system, put forward to support immigration risk assessment and risk prevention suggestions. The detailed contents are late:
(1) combining the theory of immigration risk of water conservancy and Hydropower Engineering in China, the establishment of late stage support immigration risk theory, according to the China post support immigration risk meaning, characteristics and types of risk, analyzes the causes of late stage support immigration risk, using evolutionary game theory to analyze the principle of late stage support immigration risk evolution.
(2) on the basis of resettlement support requirements of large and medium-sized reservoirs, completeness, following the establishment of index system of scientific, reliability, pertinence, feasibility and simplicity in principle, with reference to the State Council document No. 1033 "late stage support policy implementation monitoring and evaluation index system was established to help immigrants", after the risk evaluation index system.
(3) the application of BP artificial neural network principle, in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation monitoring and evaluation based on the data set up immigration risk evaluation model of late stage support. This paper selects Xichuan County of Henan Province as a case study, the quantitative evaluation for Xichuan County, the average degree of late stage support immigration risk, verify the rationality application of BP artificial neural network model in the evaluation of late stage support immigration risk.
(4) the proposed immigration proposed risk prevention. According to late stage support policy to solve the short-term goal of late stage support immigration problem of food and clothing and resettlement areas with poor infrastructure problems, strengthen the reservoir and resettlement infrastructure construction and ecological environment, improve the people's livelihood shift production and living conditions, promote economic development, increase the income of migrants. Immigration and continuously improve the standard of living to the long-term goal of the local average level of rural residents, starting from the time the node migration late stage support of risk control, put forward several points in the immigration risk at different stages of risk prevention and control recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV62;D632.4;TP183

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