广西社会经济干旱特征及抗旱效益与对策

发布时间：2018-04-01 00:25

本文选题：社会经济干旱　切入点：分布特征　出处：《人民长江》2016年S1期

【摘要】：根据广西1990~2007年18 a的统计资料,采用频率计算和等级划分的方法分析了广西干旱分布特征,并对因旱造成的人畜饮水困难、粮食减产和经济损失等社会经济影响,以及抗旱后解决人饮困难、减少农业经济损失的情况进行了较为详尽的分析。结果表明,受地形和降雨的影响,百色市和河池市等地区是旱灾易发区,且干旱程度较严重,因旱导致大量人口饮水困难,造成农田减产和巨额经济损失。采取抗旱措施后,抗旱投入产生了明显的社会和经济效益。抗旱的效益费用比多年平均值为24.3,对于严重旱灾为12.4,而对于中度旱灾甚至达到70以上,抗旱效益显著。通过水资源承载力分析和预测,到2020年广西水资源人口承载力和水资源GDP承载力均大于预测规模,水资源量可满足广西社会经济发展需求,跨区、跨流域调水是减少因水资源时空分布差异导致的社会经济干旱损失的重要途径。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of 18 years from 1990 to 2007 in Guangxi, the distribution characteristics of drought in Guangxi were analyzed by the method of frequency calculation and grade classification, and the social and economic effects of drought on the difficulty of drinking water for people and livestock, the reduction of grain production and economic losses were also analyzed.And after drought relief, the situation of reducing agricultural economic losses is analyzed in detail.The results show that affected by topography and rainfall, Baise City and Hechi City are drought-prone areas, and the drought degree is more serious. Because of drought, a large number of people have difficulty drinking water, resulting in a reduction in farmland production and huge economic losses.After adopting drought-resistant measures, drought-resistant input has produced obvious social and economic benefits.The average cost of drought resistance is 24.3for severe drought, 12.4for severe drought, and more than 70 for moderate drought.Through the analysis and prediction of water resources carrying capacity, the population carrying capacity of water resources and GDP carrying capacity of water resources in Guangxi will be larger than the predicted scale by 2020, and the amount of water resources can meet the needs of Guangxi's social and economic development and cross regions.Interbasin water transfer is an important way to reduce the loss of socio-economic drought caused by the difference of temporal and spatial distribution of water resources.
【作者单位】：广西壮族自治区水利电力勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：广西水利科技基金项目“广西城市水生态文明建设及典型应用研究(2014) 南流江水资源三条红线管理与控制制度研究(2014)”
【分类号】：P426.616;TV213.4

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