超高海拔地区水利水电工程项目施工风险管理

发布时间：2018-04-03 10:27

本文选题：超高海拔　切入点：水利水电工程　出处：《中国科学院大学(中国科学院工程管理与信息技术学院)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：十八届五中全会主题是供给侧改革,能源结构调整将继续调整,水能资源需要进一步有效开发,现阶段我国理论可装机容量的能源区域大部分集中在高海拔地区,而在3500米至5500米之间的超高海拔地区未开发的水能资源占比巨大,由于超高海拔区域的风险复杂性和独特性,工程施工风险陡然增高。本文结合工程实际,并进行了实际工程数据调研,运用风险管理理论,构建适合超高海拔地区水利水电工程项目施工风险管理理论体系。作者的主要研究成果如下:(1)参考大量实际工程,总结其施工环境特征即低温、低压和低氧;并参考大量科研资料,找出了影响超高海拔地区水电工程施工最大的劳动力与机械效率的变化规律;通过专家判断法、德尔菲法和WBS-RBS矩阵法,建立WBS-RBS矩阵,集合使用得出了影响施工风险评价的4个因素:环境因素、施工企业施工能力因素、合同签订和履行能力因素、其它因素;同时归纳出风险因素中最重要的16个风险因子,完整建立了风险识别和估计的理论模型。(2)采用层次分析法和模糊评判法,计算过程利用Matlab软件程序,建立了风险评价模型,并得出一般结论:超高海拔地区水利水电程项目施工风险程度最高的是自身能力因素、较高的为环境因素、一般的为其它因素、较小的为合同签订和履行能力,而整体来说超高海拔地区水利水电工程项目施工风险程度等级为较高。(3)将实际工程青海玉树当卡水电站施工项目代入已建立的超高海拔地区水利水电工程项目施工风险评价体系,最终将得出的结论和实际情况基本一致。(4)最终结合上述工程实例,作者针对16个因子给出了对应的风险处置措施。本文提出的风险管理体系能搞较好满足超高海拔地区水利水电工程项目施工风险管理,具有实用性,可供类似工程参考。
[Abstract]:The theme of the Fifth Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee was supply-side reform, the adjustment of the energy structure will continue to be adjusted, and the hydropower resources need to be further effectively developed. At this stage, most of the energy regions with theoretical installed capacity in China are concentrated in high-altitude areas.However, the proportion of undeveloped hydropower resources in the ultra-high elevation area between 3500 and 5500 meters is huge. Because of the complexity and uniqueness of the risk in the ultra-high altitude area, the construction risk of the project increases sharply.This paper combines the engineering practice, and carries on the actual engineering data investigation, using the risk management theory, constructs the construction risk management theory system suitable for the water conservancy and hydropower project project in the ultra-high altitude area.The main research results of the author are as follows: (1) referring to a large number of practical projects, summarizing the characteristics of the construction environment, that is, low temperature, low pressure and low oxygen, and referring to a large amount of scientific research data,This paper finds out the change law of the greatest labor force and mechanical efficiency affecting the construction of hydropower projects in ultra-high altitude area, establishes the WBS-RBS matrix through expert judgment, Delphi method and WBS-RBS matrix method.Four factors influencing the construction risk assessment are obtained: environmental factor, construction ability factor, contract signing and performance ability factor, other factors, and the 16 most important risk factors.The theoretical model of risk identification and estimation is established. (2) the risk assessment model is established by using the Matlab software program and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation method.The general conclusion is that the highest degree of construction risk of water conservancy and hydropower project in the ultra-high altitude area is its own capacity factor, the higher one is the environmental factor, the general one is the other factor, and the smaller is the contract signing and carrying out ability.On the whole, the construction risk level of water conservancy and hydropower project in ultra-high altitude area is higher. 3) the actual construction project of Yushu Dangka Hydropower Station in Qinghai Province has been replaced with the water conservancy and hydropower project in the established ultra-high altitude area.Industrial risk assessment system,Finally, the conclusion will be basically consistent with the actual situation. 4) finally, combined with the above engineering examples, the author gives the corresponding risk treatment measures for 16 factors.The risk management system proposed in this paper can better meet the construction risk management of water conservancy and hydropower projects in ultra-high altitude areas. It is practical and can be used as a reference for similar projects.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(中国科学院工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV51

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