干旱区水量平衡模型参数率定策略研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 23:23

本文选题：模型率定　切入点：率定策略　出处：《水利水电技术》2017年04期

【摘要】：以干旱区水量平衡模型为研究对象,建立了模型参数分区率定策略,采用改进的动尺度搜索算法(MDDS)对模型中河段水量损失系数、灌区退水系数等参数进行率定。使用条件概率和贝叶斯统计理论论证了分区率定策略的理论可行性,并通过干旱区(新疆开都河)水量平衡模型对模型参数全区和分区率定策略的性能优劣进行实例验证。利用焉耆站2000年1月—2015年12月的实测月平均流量过程和宝浪苏木闸2000年1月—2009年12月的实测月平均流量过程分别对水量平衡模型的焉耆站模拟结果与宝浪苏木站模拟结果进行参数率定,并对率定结果进行了分析。应用于新疆开都河流域焉耆站、宝浪苏木站的模拟结果表明,分区率定在每个分区的待率定参数个数、计算时间和率定效果方面较全区率定有较大优势。
[Abstract]:Taking the model of water balance in arid area as the research object, the strategy of determining the partition rate of model parameters is established, and the parameters such as water loss coefficient of river reach and receding coefficient of irrigation area in the model are determined by the improved dynamic scale search algorithm (MDDS).Using conditional probability and Bayesian statistics theory, the paper proves the theoretical feasibility of the partition rate determination strategy, and verifies the performance of the model parameter whole area and the partition rate determination strategy through the water balance model of the arid region (Xinjiang Kaidu River).Using the measured monthly average discharge process of Yanqi station from January 2000 to December 2015 and the measured monthly average flow process from January 2000 to December 2009 of Baolangsumu sluice, the simulation results of Yanqi station and Baolangsu station were given respectively.The parameter rate of the simulation results of the wooden station is determined.The results of rate determination are analyzed.The simulation results of Baolangsumu station applied to Yanqi station of Kaidu River basin in Xinjiang show that the partition rate is superior to that of the whole area in determining the number of parameters, the calculating time and the effect of rate determination.
【作者单位】：杭州览千信息科技有限公司;中国水利水电科学研究院;
【分类号】：TV213.4

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