考虑误差异分布的洪水概率预报方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 13:12

本文选题：洪水概率预报 + 误差异分布　；参考：《水力发电学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：提出一种考虑误差异分布的概率预报方法:根据实测及预报洪水信息,估计不同量级洪水预报误差的概率分布,推导了以预报值为条件的流量分布函数,实现洪水概率预报。以淮河王家坝断面为对象,采用经验预报模型对1996—2007年10场洪水进行预报并分析误差规律,发现不同量级洪水预报误差的均值差异显著,即误差具有异分布特征。为此,构建误差均值与预报值之间的函数关系,建立以预报流量为条件的误差概率分布。在此基础上,对2008年2场洪水进行概率预报,结果表明基于误差异分布的洪水概率预报模型简单实用;若以概率分布期望值作为定值预报,相较于经验预报结果,精度更高。
[Abstract]:A probabilistic forecasting method considering misdistribution is proposed. According to the measured and forecast flood information, the probability distribution of flood forecast error of different magnitude is estimated, and the flow distribution function based on the forecast value is derived to realize the flood probability forecast.Taking Wangjiaba section of Huaihe River as an example, the empirical forecasting model is used to forecast 10 floods from 1996 to 2007 and the error law is analyzed. It is found that the mean value difference of flood forecasting errors of different orders is significant, that is, the errors have different distribution characteristics.Therefore, the function relationship between the mean error and the forecast value is established, and the probability distribution of error is established under the condition of forecasting flow.On this basis, the probabilistic forecast of two floods in 2008 is carried out. The results show that the flood probability forecasting model based on misdistribution distribution is simple and practical, and if the expected value of probability distribution is used as the fixed value forecast, the accuracy is higher than that of the empirical forecast result.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;水安全与水科学协同创新中心;淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心);
【基金】：国家重点研发计划“水资源高效开发利用”重点专项(2016YFC0402706;2016YFC0402709) 水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301066;201401034)
【分类号】：P338

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