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西北干旱半干旱地区分布式水文模拟及气候变化影响评估

发布时间:2018-04-11 15:29

  本文选题:干旱半干旱地区 + 河西走廊 ; 参考:《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文


【摘要】:干旱半干旱地区的水文模拟一直是水文模型领域研究的重点,河西走廊作为我国典型的干旱半干旱地区,面临突出的水资源问题。本文系统介绍了流域水文模型的发展过程、原理及相关研究现状,并介绍了气候变化研究的相关进展及主要研究方法。以河西走廊疏勒河、黑河、石羊河三大内陆河流域作为研究区域,基于分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM)构建了适用于河西走廊地区的水循环模型,对DTVGM模型的参数优化算法进行了研究。在此基础上分析评估了气候变化对河西走廊地区水文循环的影响。论文的主要成果如下: (1)分析了河西走廊地区的水资源的问题及现状,并对研究区内的三大内陆河流域疏勒河、黑河、石羊河的水文要素进行了分析,其中对三大流域的气温及降水数据分析表明,河西走廊地区整体的气温及降水量都呈波动上升的趋势,且河西走廊地区降水量年内分配不均。 (2)采用粒子群算法(PSO)对DTVGM模型的参数进行了优化,优化效果良好,表明基于DTVGM模型构建的河西走廊水循环模型适用于干旱半干旱地区的水文模拟。河西走廊三大流域绝大多数重点断面的径流过程均取得了较好的模拟结果,日过程效率系数在0.6以上,月过程效率系数在0.7以上。 (3)分析气候变化对河西走廊地区水文循环的影响,结果表明河西走廊三大流域的径流量与降水量呈线性关系,随着降水量的增加而呈逐渐增加的趋势;而径流量随气温变化而上下波动,其主要原因是气温变化同时作用于蒸发及融雪。蒸发与融雪对径流量的作用效果是相反的,在不同温度下,蒸发与融雪交替占据主导地位。当前的气候变化趋势有益于河西走廊地区径流量的增加。
[Abstract]:Hydrological simulation in arid and semi-arid areas has always been the focus of research in the field of hydrological models. As a typical arid and semi-arid region in China, the Hexi Corridor is faced with outstanding water resources problems.This paper systematically introduces the development process, principle and related research status of watershed hydrological model, and introduces the related progress and main research methods of climate change research.Taking the three inland river basins of Shule River, Heihe River and Shiyang River in the Hexi Corridor as the study area, a water cycle model suitable for the Hexi Corridor is constructed based on the distributed time-varying gain model (DTVGM). The parameter optimization algorithm of the DTVGM model is studied.On this basis, the impacts of climate change on hydrological cycle in Hexi Corridor region are analyzed and evaluated.The main results of the paper are as follows:1) the problems and present situation of water resources in Hexi Corridor region are analyzed, and the hydrological elements of Shule River, Heihe River and Shiyang River in three inland river basins in the study area are analyzed.The temperature and precipitation in Hexi Corridor area fluctuate and increase, and the distribution of precipitation in Hexi Corridor is uneven.2) the parameters of DTVGM model are optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO), and the results show that the water cycle model of Hexi Corridor based on DTVGM model is suitable for hydrological simulation in arid and semi-arid areas.The runoff process of most key sections in the three major watersheds of Hexi Corridor has obtained good simulation results. The efficiency coefficient of daily process is more than 0.6 and the efficiency coefficient of monthly process is more than 0.7.3) the effect of climate change on hydrological cycle in Hexi Corridor area is analyzed. The results show that the runoff and precipitation of the three basins in Hexi Corridor are linearly related to the precipitation, and gradually increase with the increase of precipitation.The main reason is that the change of air temperature acts on evaporation and snowmelt at the same time.The effect of evaporation and snowmelt on runoff is opposite. At different temperatures, evaporation and snowmelt are dominant alternately.The current trend of climate change is beneficial to the increase of runoff in Hexi Corridor.
【学位授予单位】:华北电力大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:P467;P334.92

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