基于DPSIR和主成分分析的阜康市水资源承载力评价

发布时间：2018-04-15 11:30

本文选题：阜康 + 水资源承载力　；参考：《南水北调与水利科技》2017年03期

【摘要】：针对新疆自治区阜康市水资源日益短缺及生态环境逐渐恶化的现实情况,根据DPSIR框架展开水资源承载力因子分析,构建了水资源承载力多因素基础指标体系;应用主成分分析法筛选出主要指标,采用熵权法进行赋权;构建综合评价模型对水资源承载力进行计算。研究表明:筛选出的4个主成分累计贡献率为92.016%,能充分代表多因素基础指标体系;阜康市九年间(2006年-2014年)水资源承载力综合评分值在0.498~0.531之间波动,下降速率缓慢且波动幅度减小,整体上处于开发饱和阶段。社会和经济发展的压力带来的农业用水的增加是导致水资源承载力下降的主要指标,扩大地下水开采和推行的节水灌溉等压采措施则在很大程度上缓解了下降的趋势。
[Abstract]:In view of the shortage of water resources and the deterioration of ecological environment in Fukang City, Xinjiang Autonomous region, the water resources carrying capacity factor analysis was carried out according to the DPSIR framework, and the multi-factor basic index system of water resources carrying capacity was constructed.The principal component analysis method was used to screen out the main indexes and the entropy weight method was used to calculate the carrying capacity of water resources.The results show that the cumulative contribution rate of the four principal components is 92.016, which can fully represent the multi-factor basic index system, and the comprehensive score of water resources carrying capacity fluctuates between 0.498 and 0.531 in Fukang City during the nine years (2006-2014).The decline rate is slow and the fluctuation amplitude is reduced, which is in the stage of development saturation on the whole.The increase of water use in agriculture caused by the pressure of social and economic development is the main index leading to the decrease of water resources carrying capacity, and the expansion of groundwater exploitation and the implementation of water saving irrigation isobaric mining measures to a great extent alleviate the downward trend.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院;水利部水资源管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41502228) 水利部行政事业性项目(1261521610010)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4

【相似文献】