复杂性条件下流域水量水质联合调控与风险规避研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 01:16

  本文选题：不确定性 + 风险规避　； 参考：《华北电力大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：长久以来,人类社会、经济、环境协调发展一直得益于水资源合理规划管理,持续的高强度人类活动增加了水资源系统不确定性因子并加剧了水资源水环境危机,不能实现预期目标的水资源系统已反映出规划和决策的失误以及有效处理水资源水环境系统不确定性的重要性。并且,水资源系统中不确定性因素也将进一步引发管理决策风险,系统表征水资源系统中存在的不确定性因素以及规避系统决策风险,并将其融入到水资源水环境优化模型中已成为实现可持续水资源系统管理的关键。在全面辨识水资源系统特征及其复杂性的基础上,本研究旨在开发能够表征水资源水环境系统复杂性以及规避系统决策风险的不确定优化方法体系,构建基于风险规避的不确定性水资源优化配置模型以及水量水质联合调控模型,反映风险和系统收益之间的权衡关系,表征流域经济发展、水资源开发利用、水环境污染保护之间的复杂关系,以流域水资源水环境系统为案例来验证模型的科学性以及在实际水量水质调控决策中的有效性。具体研究内容包括：(1)针对水资源系统中信息的不确定性和随机性等特点,在已有的不确定随机理论方法基础上,考虑目标函数中随机参数对风险的影响,以区间数学规划、随机方法和条件风险理论为基础,建立基于风险规避的区间两阶段随机水资源优配置化模型；(2)针对流域经济发展、水资源及水环境系统之间的互动性,基于不确定性随机理论和下方风险控制理论,建立随机下方风险水质水量联合调配模型,以处理水资源系统不确定性,平衡区域发展目标,规避水资源配置不均衡风险；(3)以南四湖流域为案例,验证模型的有效性。分析南四湖流域水资源水环境系统特征,针对流域水资源供需不平衡压力,建立南四湖流域多水源多区域多用户区间两阶段随机水资源优化配置模型,实现水资源合理规划；针对流域水环境压力日益突出的问题,基于不确定性随机规划及下方风险控制理论,构建南四湖流域水量水质联合调控模型,均衡区域发展目标,指导流域污染控制政策下水资源水环境优管理。总体来看,本研究在对系统不确定性信息表征以及系统风险规避等方面较之传统确定性及不确定模型有一定的改善,同时提出基于风险规避的水资源优化配置及水量水质联合调配模型丰富了不确定性水资源水环境系统优化理论,为实现社会、经济和水环境的协调、可持续发展提供理论和方法支撑。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the coordinated development of human society, economy and environment has benefited from the rational planning and management of water resources.The failure of water resources systems to achieve the expected objectives has reflected the failure of planning and decision-making and the importance of effectively dealing with the uncertainties of water resources and environment systems.Moreover, the uncertainty factors in water resources system will further lead to the risk of management decision, and the system represents the uncertainty factors in water resources system and avoids the system decision-making risk.It has become the key to realize the sustainable water resources system management by integrating it into the water resources environment optimization model.Based on the comprehensive identification of the characteristics and complexity of water resources systems, this study aims to develop an uncertain optimization method system that can represent the complexity of water resources and water environment systems and avoid the risk of system decision-making.The optimal allocation model of uncertain water resources based on risk aversion and the joint regulation model of water quantity and water quality are constructed to reflect the trade-off relationship between risk and system income and to characterize the economic development of river basin and the exploitation and utilization of water resources.The complex relationship between water environment pollution protection and water environment system of river basin is taken as an example to verify the scientific nature of the model and the validity of the model in the actual water quantity and water quality control decision.The specific research contents include: (1) considering the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness of information in water resources system, considering the influence of random parameters in objective function on risk, and taking into account the influence of random parameters in objective function on risk, the interval mathematical programming is used.Based on stochastic method and conditional risk theory, an interval two-stage stochastic water resources optimal allocation model based on risk aversion is established.Based on the uncertainty stochastic theory and the lower risk control theory, the joint allocation model of water quality and quantity is established to deal with the uncertainty of water resources system and to balance the regional development objectives.To avoid the risk of unbalanced allocation of water resources, the effectiveness of the model is verified by taking the Nansihu Basin as a case.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of water resources environment system in Nansi Lake basin, a two-stage stochastic water resources optimal allocation model for multi-source, multi-region and multi-user areas in Nansi Lake basin is established to realize the rational planning of water resources.In view of the increasingly prominent problem of water environmental pressure in the basin, based on the uncertainty stochastic programming and the theory of risk control under the basin, the model of joint regulation and control of water quantity and water quality in the basin of Nansihu Lake is constructed to balance the regional development objectives.To guide the optimal management of water resources and water environment under the policy of river basin pollution control.In general, this study has some improvements on the representation of system uncertainty information and system risk aversion, compared with the traditional deterministic and uncertain models.At the same time, the model of optimal allocation of water resources based on risk aversion and joint allocation of water quantity and water quality enriches the optimization theory of uncertain water resources and water environment system, in order to realize the coordination of society, economy and water environment.Sustainable development provides theoretical and methodological support.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X52;TV213.4

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