基于水文气象分区线性矩法的淮河流域极值降雨频率分析

发布时间：2018-04-20 11:24

本文选题：水文气象分区 + 线性矩法　；参考：《水文》2016年06期

【摘要】：以淮河流域为研究区,利用地区线性矩法进行站点极值降雨的频率分析。研究结果表明:基于气象成因和水文统计特性相结合的方法将研究区划分为6个通过异质性和不和谐性检测的水文气象一致区。在此基础上,通过蒙特卡罗模拟、均方根误差和线性矩系数的相关图综合判断得出各时段下6个一致区下的最优分布。其中,24h时段下的最优分布分别为:GEV、GNO、GLO、GEV、GLO、GEV。利用最优分布计算出淮河流域各站点一整套(多时段多重现期)的频率估计值。其中,最大值分布在沂蒙山区,这与站点的实际观测相一致。水文气象分区线性矩法是一种稳健可靠的频率分析方法,可应用于其它流域。
[Abstract]:Taking Huaihe River Basin as the study area, the frequency analysis of station extreme rainfall was carried out by using the linear moment method. The results show that the study area is divided into six hydrometeorological consistent areas by heterogeneity and disharmony detection based on the combination of meteorological origin and hydrological statistical characteristics. On this basis, through Monte Carlo simulation, the root mean square error and linear moment coefficient of the correlation diagram comprehensive judgment of the optimal distribution under the six consistent regions in each period of time. The optimal distribution of GLOV in 24 hours was: Glou Glou, GLOV, GLOGEV, GLOGEV, respectively. The optimal distribution is used to calculate the frequency estimates of a whole set of stations in the Huaihe River Basin. The maximum value is distributed in Yimeng Mountain area, which is consistent with the actual observation. Hydrometeorological zonal linear moment method is a robust and reliable method for frequency analysis, which can be applied to other watersheds.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学应用水文气象研究院;昆山气象局;海门气象局;
【基金】：江苏省青年基金项目(BK20141001) 淮河流域气象中心开放项目(HRM201502) 江苏省气象局青年科研基金项目(Q201602)
【分类号】：P333.1;P339

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