水库汛期分期调度研究及效应评价

发布时间：2018-04-22 17:12

本文选题：汛期分期 + 效应评价　；参考：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：论文以水库洪水资源化为研究目标、以洪水季节性变化为切入点,对水库汛期分期划定、分期设计洪水、分期汛限水位以及水库汛期分期效应评价展开研究。论文以广西澄碧河水库为工程实证分析,取得有价值的研究成果：论文对实例工程1963～2011年的来水量、弃水量、蓄满率以及水库大坝工程条件、库区周边供水要求和当地社会发展需要进行分析,论证其实施汛期分期调度的可行性和必要性。通过对水库日均降雨量的分析,划定水库的汛期为4月13日～10月31日,共202天,非汛期为11月1日～次年4月12日,共163天。论文以分形理论方法为基础,利用多年日均降雨量序列、多年最大降雨量序列、多年平均日径流量序列、多年最大日径流量序列进行分维的计算与分析,最终确定分期结果为：前汛期4月13日-6月6日,主汛期6月7日～9月9日,后汛期9月10日～10月31日。论文通过相关性分析和理论频率曲线分析推求分期设计洪水,并将三次样条插值函数应用到调洪演算当中,最终以不降低工程防洪标准为原则,结合现实和相关要求,确定水库各分期的汛限水位为：前汛期185m,主汛期185m、后汛期185m-187.5m。论文利用“效益-风险”理论对实施汛期分期调度进行效应评价,计算结果表明：水库汛期分期调度后将年均增加效益88～162万元,相应的,年均期望风险为22.635万元,效益远大于风险,说明适当抬高水库后汛期的汛限水位是合理可行的。
[Abstract]:Taking reservoir flood resource as its research goal and flood seasonal variation as the breakthrough point, this paper studies the classification of reservoir flood season, the design flood by stages, the limited water level by flood season and the evaluation of reservoir flood season effect. This paper takes Chengbihe Reservoir in Guangxi as an example and obtains valuable research results. The paper analyzes the quantity of water coming from the project from 1963 to 2011, the quantity of water discarded, the rate of storage, the condition of dam project, the requirement of water supply around the reservoir area and the local social development, and proves the feasibility and necessity of carrying out the operation by stages in flood season. Through the analysis of the average daily rainfall of the reservoir, the flood season of the reservoir is determined to be from April 13 to October 31, totally 202 days, and the non-flood period from November 1 to April 12, for 163 days. On the basis of fractal theory, the fractal dimension is calculated and analyzed by using the series of annual average rainfall, the series of annual maximum rainfall, the series of annual average daily runoff and the series of years' maximum daily runoff. The final results are as follows: from April 13 to June 6, from June 7 to September 9 in the main flood season, and from September 10 to October 31 after the flood season. Through correlation analysis and theoretical frequency curve analysis, the paper deduces the design flood by stages, and applies cubic spline interpolation function to flood control calculation. Finally, the principle of not reducing the flood control standard of engineering is taken as the principle, combining with reality and relevant requirements. It is determined that the flood limit water levels in each stage of the reservoir are: 185m in the previous flood season, 185m in the main flood season and 185m-187.5m in the latter flood season. Based on the theory of "benefit and risk", this paper evaluates the effect of stage operation in flood season. The results show that the annual benefit will increase by 88 ~ 1.62 million yuan per year, and the average annual expected risk will be 226350 yuan. The benefit is far greater than the risk, which shows that it is reasonable and feasible to properly raise the flood limit water level of the reservoir in the later flood season.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.1

【参考文献】