梯级水库群联合优化调度运行方式研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 07:07

本文选题：梯级水库 + 优化调度　；参考：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：水库洪水资源化可充分利用现有的水利工程条件,完善调度方案和操作规程,可达到防洪减灾、减少弃水、增加供水的目的,是实现水利发展的一条非工程措施,为加快水利发展提供“软实力”。论文以三峡水库、溪洛渡水库、向家坝水库、清江梯级水库和丹江口水库为研究背景,开展了水库优化调度规则和洪水资源调控技术研究与应用,其中包括水库群发电优化调度不确定性分析、水库群优化调度函数研究、水库群汛限水位联合运用和动态控制、梯级水库汛末联合蓄水调度研究和水库多目标优化调度图对气候变化的自适应研究。论文的主要工作和创新点如下： (1)阐述了洪水资源化研究目的和意义,综述了水库优化调度规则提取、水库中小洪水动态调度和水库汛末提前蓄水调度的研究进展,提出了现有相关研究存在的问题。 (2)探讨了水文预报误差、泄流能力、水位-库容关系不确定性、汛限水位分期控制及不确定性组合情况对水电站群长期发电优化调度的影响,采用随机模拟法模拟不确定性因素,应用逐次优化法(POA)计算各种不确定性情况下的优化调度结果。以三峡水库与清江梯级水库为例,计算结果表明,对水库优化调度的影响较显著的为水文预报误差、水位-库容关系的不确定性和汛限水位的分期控制,影响较小的为水库泄流能力的不确定性；汛限水位分期控制对水库优化调度的影响表明,挖掘水库洪水资源化“潜力”的最佳时机为前汛期与后汛期。 (3)对三峡水库与清江梯级水库组成的混联水库群进行结构分析,其中单一水库采用水量调度函数模拟指导水库运行,梯级水库以时段末总蓄能最大为目标函数将能量调度函数的因变量总出力在各库水电站之间进行优化分配,指导梯级水库调度运行。实例应用结果表明,相比常规调度方案,双量调度函数能显著增加混联水库群的兴利效益,减少弃水,提高水资源的利用效率。 (4)建立了水库群汛限水位联合运用和动态控制模型,在不降低水库群防洪标准的前提下,最大限度地发挥水库群兴利效益。以三峡梯级和清江梯级组成的混联水库群为例,分别按照原设计方案、梯级汛限水位单独运用方案、库群汛限水位联合运用方案进行调度运行。应用结果表明,开展混联水库群汛限水位联合运用调度,可显著提高水库的综合利用效益,提高了洪水资源利用水平。进一步建立了长期与短期调度规则耦合的梯级水库汛限水位实时动态控制模型,在不降低原有防洪标准的前提下寻求综合利用效益最大的梯级水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案。以清江梯级水库为例,应用结果表明,相比未耦合长期调度规则的梯级水库汛限水位动态控制方案和原设计方案,提高了梯级水库发电量和洪水资源利用率,为研究水库群洪水资源化提供了一种新的思路和方法。 (5)建立了梯级水库联合蓄水调度模型。模型主要包括三个模块：防洪风险分析模块、蓄水效益模块和多目标评价模块。以溪洛渡-向家坝-三峡水库为例,应用结果表明,最优同步蓄水方案和最优异步蓄水方案,均可不降低原防洪标准,提高梯级水库群的综合效益,前者的发电效益较优,而后者的蓄水效益较优。该模型可协调好防洪、发电、蓄水目标之间的矛盾,为实现梯级水库蓄水时机与蓄水进程的协同优选,提供了多目标决策方案。 (6)建立了水库调度图对气候变化的自适应模型。该模型主要包括以下三个模块：天气发生器模块；分布式可变下渗能力水文模拟模块；优化调度图模块。以丹江口水库为例,多目标优化调度方式与常规调度方式相比,在不降低防洪标准的前提下,生态供水保证率、多年平均生态供水量和多年平均发电量均得到了提高,且对下游供水量和南水北调工程调水量影响不大。
[Abstract]:The reservoir flood resource utilization can make full use of the existing water engineering conditions, perfect the scheduling scheme and operation regulations, and can achieve the purpose of flood control and disaster reduction, reduce the abandoning of water and increase the water supply. It is a non engineering measure to realize the development of water conservancy, and provides "soft power" for the development of water conservancy. Qingjiang cascade reservoir and Danjiangkou reservoir are the research background, and the research and application of reservoir optimal scheduling rules and flood resources regulation technology are carried out, including the uncertainty analysis of reservoir group power generation optimization scheduling, reservoir swarm optimization scheduling function research, reservoir group flood limit water level joint use and dynamic control, cascade reservoirs at the end of flood season combined storage. The main research work and innovations of the paper are as follows:
(1) this paper expounds the purpose and significance of the study of flood resource research, summarizes the research progress on the extraction of reservoir optimal scheduling rules, the dynamic scheduling of small and medium reservoirs and the advance storage scheduling of the reservoir at the end of the flood season, and puts forward the existing problems in the related research.
(2) the influence of the hydrological forecast error, discharge capacity, water level and reservoir capacity uncertainty, the influence of the instalment control and uncertainty combination of the flood limit water level on the long-term power generation optimization and dispatching of the hydropower station group is discussed. The stochastic simulation method is used to simulate the uncertain factors, and the optimal scheduling node is calculated by the successive optimization method (POA). Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir and the Qingjiang cascade reservoir as an example, the calculation results show that the influence of the reservoir optimization scheduling is more significant for the hydrological forecast error, the uncertainty of the water level and the reservoir capacity relationship and the instalment control of the limited water level of the flood season, and the indeterminacy of the reservoir discharge capacity is smaller, and the optimal dispatch of the limited water level of the flood water level to the reservoir is optimized. The influence shows that the best time to excavate the potential of reservoir flood is pre flood season and post flood season.
(3) structural analysis of the mixed reservoir group of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the cascade reservoir in Qingjiang, in which a single reservoir is used to simulate the operation of the reservoir by the water dispatching function, and the cascade reservoir takes the total energy of the energy dispatch function as the objective function to optimize the distribution of the energy dispatch function between the reservoirs and the hydropower stations. The practical application results show that, compared with the conventional scheduling scheme, the dual quantity dispatching function can significantly increase the benefit benefit of the mixed reservoir group, reduce the abandoning water and improve the utilization efficiency of the water resources.
(4) a model of limited water level joint use and dynamic control of reservoir flood is set up. The reservoir group benefit benefit is maximally exerts under the premise of not reducing the flood control standard of the reservoir group. Taking the Three Gorges cascade and the cascade reservoirs of Qingjiang as an example, according to the original design scheme, the cascade flood limit water level is used separately and the reservoir group is limited to the water. The application results show that the comprehensive utilization efficiency of the reservoir can be improved significantly and the utilization level of the flood resources is improved. The real-time dynamic control model of the cascade reservoir flood limit water level coupled with the long-term and short-term scheduling rules is further established. On the premise of reducing the original flood control standard, we seek the real-time dynamic control scheme of the flood limit water level of the cascade reservoir with the maximum benefit. Taking the Qingjiang cascade reservoir as an example, the application results show that the dynamic control scheme and the original design scheme of the cascade reservoir flood limit water level are improved compared with the uncoupled long-term scheduling rules, and the power generation and flood of the cascade reservoirs are improved. The utilization rate of water resources provides a new idea and method for the study of flood resource utilization of reservoirs.
(5) the model of cascade reservoir joint water storage scheduling is established. The model mainly includes three modules: flood control risk analysis module, water storage benefit module and multi target evaluation module. The example of Xiluodu Xiangjiaba Three Gorges reservoir shows that the optimal synchronous storage scheme and the optimal water storage scheme can not reduce the original flood control standard. The comprehensive benefit of the high cascade reservoir group is that the former has a better power generation benefit and the latter has a better water storage benefit. This model can coordinate the contradiction between flood control, power generation and water storage targets, and provides a multi-objective decision scheme for the coordinated optimization of the timing of the cascade reservoir storage and the process of storage.
(6) the adaptive model of the reservoir scheduling map to climate change is set up. The model mainly includes the following three modules: the weather generator module, the distributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic simulation module and the optimal scheduling diagram module. The Danjiangkou reservoir is taken as an example, and the multi target optimization scheduling method is not reduced to the flood control standard compared with the conventional scheduling method. Under the premise, the guarantee rate of ecological water supply, the average annual ecological water supply and the average generation of electricity generation have been improved, and the water supply and water transfer in the south to North Water Diversion Project have little influence.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.12

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