武威市水资源生态足迹与可持续利用研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 22:42

本文选题：武威市 + 水资源生态足迹　；参考：《甘肃农业大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源不仅是地球上比较特殊的物质,也是人们生活和生产的物质基础。区域生态环境的维持以及经济可持续发展都离不开水资源。武威地处河西走廊中部,巴丹吉林沙漠南缘,对河西地区生态安全意义重大。境内气候干旱、沙化严重,生态脆弱,严重影响了工农业的发展及人们的生活生产。农业是武威经济发展的基础,水资源是否合理分配、高效利用关乎整个农业生态系统是否稳定有序发展,关乎整个武威市经济社会的持续发展,因而对武威市水资源的现状进行定量分析及未来水资源进行评价预测意义深远。本文基于Rees提出的生态足迹理论,对2005-2014年武威市的水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力、水资源生态赤字、剪刀差和万元GDP等指标进行了计算和分析,并运用spss软件中的相关分析法和通径分析对影响武威市水资源可持续发展的因素进行分析,最后运用灰色预测模型对武威市未来6年各行业水资源进行了预测分析,并提出了一些建议。研究结果表明:(1)2005-2014年间武威市人均水资源生态足迹变化出现了浮动,基本呈逐年递减的趋势,2008年出现最高值1.9694 hm2/人,2014年其值下降到1.511277 hm2/人,比2005年下降了18.14%。(2)2005-2014年间武威市人均水资源生态承载力整体上呈现下降趋势,2005年达到最大值0.482hm2/人,2009年处于最低值0.2444 hm2/人。(3)2005-2014年武威市一直处于人均水资源生态赤字状态,整体波动较大。绝对值从2005年的1.3643 hm2/人上升到2008年的1.637hm2/人,2008年达到最高值,上升了19.99%。剪刀差分析表明,武威市水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承载力之间的变化差异逐渐增大,水资源生态赤字仍很严重。(4)2005-2014年武威市水资源万元GDP生态足迹一直处于下降趋势,从2005年的0.013019 hm2/人下降到了2014年的0.003723hm2/人,十年来下降了71.4个百分点,说明水资源利用率逐年提高。十年间的生态压力指数均大于3,大体上呈现上升趋势,水资源处于不安全状态。(5)2005-2014年间武威市农业用水生态足迹在水资源生态足迹中所占比例呈现下降趋势,2008年其值达到最大值1.650791 hm2/人,2014年为最小值0.932335 hm2/人,比2008年下降了43.52%。工业水资源生态足迹、生态用水生态足迹呈现不断上升的趋势。武威市生活用水量变化趋势不明显,2005-2014年基本保持在0.075644-0.085192hm2/人之间。2005-2014年武威市污水生态足迹增加趋势也很明显,从2005年的0.100531hm2增加到2014年的0.239hm2,是2005年的2倍多。(6)运用spss软件对影响武威市水资源的相关因素进行分析,结合通径分析对相关性进行了详细了解,结果表明,农业用水、生活用水和人口三个指标对武威市水资源生态足迹总的影响相对较大,其他因素受农业用水的影响也较大。(7)本文以武威市2005-2014年十年的水资源生态足迹值为基础,采用GM(2,1)灰色预测模型,对武威市未来6年的水资源总量及各行业水资源变化情况进行了预测。结果表明,武威市未来6年的水资源需求量仍在增加,供需矛盾仍然很尖锐,必须调整产业结构,发展绿色农业,科学合理分配各行业用水,提高水资源利用率,兴修水利工程,实现水资源的可持续利用。
[Abstract]:Water resources are not only a special substance on the earth, but also the material basis for people's life and production. The maintenance of the regional ecological environment and the sustainable development of the economy are all without water resources. Wuwei is located in the middle of the Hexi Corridor and the southern edge of the Jilin desert in the Basan. It is of great significance to the ecological security of the Hexi region. The fragile state has seriously affected the development of industry and agriculture and people's life and production. Agriculture is the basis of Wuwei's economic development, whether the rational distribution of water resources, the efficient utilization of the whole agricultural ecosystem and the stable and orderly development of the whole Wuwei City, and the sustainable development of the whole economic and social society of the city of Wuwei, therefore, make a quantitative analysis of the current situation of water resources in the city of Wuwei. In this paper, based on the theory of ecological footprint proposed by Rees, the ecological footprint of water resources, water resources ecological carrying capacity, water resources ecological deficit, scissors difference and 10000 yuan GDP are calculated and analyzed in the 2005-2014 year Wuwei City, and the correlation analysis and path in SPSS software are used. Analysis of the factors affecting the sustainable development of water resources in Wuwei City, the grey prediction model was used to forecast and analyze the water resources of various industries in Wuwei in the next 6 years, and some suggestions were put forward. The results showed that: (1) the change of the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in Wuwei was fluctuated in 2005-2014 years, and it was basically year by year. Declining trend, the highest value of 1.9694 hm2/ people in 2008, in 2014 its value dropped to 1.511277 hm2/ people, compared with 2005 down 18.14%. (2) 2005-2014 years, Wuwei city per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity on the overall decline trend, 2005 to the maximum value of 0.482hm2/ people, 2009 in the lowest value of 0.2444 hm2/ people. (3) 2005-2014 year Wuwei city. It has been in a state of water resource ecological deficit per capita, and the overall fluctuation is larger. The absolute value rose from 1.3643 hm2/ people in 2005 to 1.637hm2/ in 2008 and reached the highest value in 2008. The analysis of 19.99%. scissors difference showed that the difference between the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological bearing capacity of water resources increased gradually, and the water resources were born. The state deficit is still very serious. (4) the ecological footprint of Wuwei water resources GDP in 2005-2014 years has been declining, from 0.013019 hm2/ people in 2005 to the 0.003723hm2/ people in 2014, the decline of 71.4 percentage points in ten years, indicating that the utilization rate of water resources has increased year by year. The ecological pressure index of the ten years is more than 3, on the whole show up. The water resources are in an insecure state. (5) the ecological footprint of agricultural water use in Wuwei in the past 2005-2014 years has a downward trend in the ecological footprint of water resources. In 2008, the value reached the maximum value of 1.650791 hm2/ people, the minimum value of 0.932335 hm2/ in 2014, and the ecological footprint of 43.52%. industrial water resources and ecological water consumption in 2008. The trend of ecological footprint is rising. The trend of the change of water consumption in Wuwei is not obvious. In the 2005-2014 year, the ecological footprint of Wuwei city in Wuwei is basically maintained, and the increase trend of the ecological footprint is also obvious, from 0.100531hm2 in 2005 to 0.239hm2 in 2014, which is more than 2 times in 2005. (6) the use of SPSS soft. The relevant factors affecting the water resources in Wuwei were analyzed, and the correlation was understood in detail with the path analysis. The results showed that the total impact of agricultural water, water and population on the ecological footprint of water resources in Wuwei was relatively large, and the other factors were greatly influenced by the agricultural water use. (7) this paper took Wuwei city 2005- 2005- Based on the ecological footprint value of water resources for ten years in 2014, the GM (2,1) grey prediction model is used to predict the total water resources and the changes of water resources in various industries in the next 6 years in Wuwei. The results show that the water resources demand in the next 6 years in Wuwei is still increasing, the contradiction between supply and demand is still sharp, and the industrial structure must be adjusted to develop green. In order to achieve sustainable utilization of water resources, we should scientifically and rationally allocate water for various industries, improve the utilization ratio of water resources, and build water conservancy projects.

【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】