南水北调中线冰情综合分析平台研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 22:29

本文选题：南水北调中线 + 冰期输水　；参考：《大连理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：南水北调中线工程冬季输水时有发生冰塞、冰坝等冰害的风险。冰期运行安全涉及到工程运行管理的各个环节,仅基于人防、物防来保证渠道冬季输水安全是不够的,为此中线干线工程计划布设不少于5000个传感器和工程设备,监测渠道实时状况。然而,目前缺乏有效利用这些传感器和工程设备来保证渠道安全的技术手段,因此本文将工程冬季运行时异常识别与预警、溯源、应急的需求与传感器等多源信息的利用结合起来,基于理论分析、数值模拟、图像处理等手段,在深入分析冰期输水主要机理及过程的基础上,重点研究了冰期输水深层综合分析平台的构建。主要研究内容及成果如下：(1)分析了工程冰期输水时存在的风险并对渠道实时冰情综合分析能力进行了研究。提出了按成因分类的异常模式分类方法,获得了中线冰期异常模式构成：冰花堆积型异常模式、失稳-冰块堆积型异常模式、自然-冰块堆积型异常模式。综合前期研究成果,构建了异常模式指标体系并确定了各指标阈值。依托于数值模拟、图像处理等手段,制定了异常模式识别、预警流程。(2)研究了京石段冰害风险空间分布。提出了改进的指标量化方法,利用模糊评价理论对中线京石段单元渠道及渠段的冰害堆积风险进行了研究,结果表明：单元渠道的冰害风险可分为5级,西黑山节制闸-瀑河倒虹吸节制闸渠段及坟庄河节制闸-南拒马节制闸渠段的相对风险最大。(3)耦合水动力学、冰水力学、热力学、等理论,构建了中线冰情演变数值模型并对模型进行了验证。通过建立渠道的气、水、冰的热传导方程、水温控制方程、非恒定流运动方程、浮冰输移及冰盖发展方程,构建了一维冰期输水模型,结合南水北调中线工程,系统模拟了典型年渠道初冰、冰盖形成、发展和消融总过程,利用冰期运行日报获得的实测数据对模型进行验证,验证结果表明：模拟结果与实测结果吻合的较好,模型的计算精度能够满足计算分析与工程应用的要求。(4)研究了中线冰情演变数值模型实时校正方法。将卡尔曼滤波技术与模型水温模拟理论相结合,以水温为状态向量对南水北调中线工程典型渠段水温模拟过程进行了实时校正。基于中线工程海量视频图像数据,提出了将图像处理技术获取的敏感参数信息应用到模型冰冻模块实时校正的研究思想。
[Abstract]:There is a risk of ice jam and ice dam in the middle route of South-to-North Water transfer Project in winter. The operation safety of glacial period relates to every link of project operation management, only based on civil air defense and material control to ensure the water conveyance safety of channel in winter is not enough. For this reason, no less than 5,000 sensors and engineering equipment are laid out in the plan of the main line project of the middle route. Monitor channel real-time status. However, there is a lack of effective use of these sensors and engineering equipment to ensure the safety of the channel, so this paper traces the abnormal identification and early warning to the source of the winter operation of the project. The emergency needs are combined with the use of multi-source information such as sensors. Based on theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, image processing and other means, the main mechanism and process of water transportation during the ice age are deeply analyzed. The construction of comprehensive analysis platform for water conveyance in glacial age was studied emphatically. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the risk of water conveyance in the engineering ice age is analyzed and the comprehensive analysis ability of real-time ice condition in the channel is studied. An anomaly model classification method based on genetic classification is proposed, and the composition of the anomaly pattern of the mid-line glacial age is obtained: the abnormal pattern of ice flower accumulation, the abnormal model of instability and ice accumulation, and the anomaly model of natural and ice accumulation. Based on the previous research results, the index system of abnormal pattern is constructed and the threshold of each index is determined. Based on the methods of numerical simulation and image processing, abnormal pattern recognition and early warning flow are established to study the spatial distribution of ice hazard risk in Jingshi section. An improved index quantification method is put forward, and the risk of ice hazard accumulation in the channel and canal section of Jingshi section of the middle route is studied by using the fuzzy evaluation theory. The results show that the ice hazard risk of the unit channel can be divided into 5 levels. Coupled hydrodynamics, ice hydraulics, thermodynamics, etc. A numerical model of ice regime evolution in the middle line is constructed and verified. By establishing the heat conduction equation of gas, water and ice, the governing equation of water temperature, the equation of motion of unsteady flow, the equation of floating ice transport and the development equation of ice sheet, a one-dimensional model of water transport in glacial period is constructed, and combined with the mid-route project of South-to-North Water transfer Project, The process of initial ice formation, ice cap formation, development and ablation in typical years is simulated systematically. The model is verified by the measured data obtained from the Ice Age Daily. The results show that the simulation results are in good agreement with the measured results. The accuracy of the model can meet the requirements of calculation analysis and engineering application. Based on the Kalman filter technique and the model water temperature simulation theory, the simulation process of water temperature in typical channel section of South-to-North Water transfer Project is calibrated in real time using water temperature as state vector. Based on the massive video image data of the mid-line engineering, the research idea of applying the sensitive parameter information obtained by the image processing technology to the real-time correction of the model freezing module is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV68

【相似文献】