气候变化下流域洪涝灾害风险性评价——以珠江流域为例

发布时间：2018-04-30 01:20

本文选题：气候变化 + 洪涝灾害　；参考：《中国农村水利水电》2017年06期

【摘要】：洪涝灾害是我国自然灾害中影响最严重的灾害之一,近年来由于全球气候变暖,气候变化导致洪涝灾害事件频发,我国遭受的损失越来越大。本文运用函数与指标结合的方法,构造洪涝灾害风险性评价函数,对珠江流域及流域内的广东省、广西壮族自治区和云南省2001-2014年洪涝灾害风险性进行了评价。结果表明:在14 a间珠江流域风险性较高,为中高度风险,总体呈上升趋势,形势严峻;广东省风险性略低于珠江流域,处于中度偏上风险;广西壮族自治区风险性偏低,仅3个年份为低度风险及以下,其余年份均为中度风险,但目前风险性有增加趋势,需注意防范风险;云南省风险性最低,14 a均处于低度风险内。研究结果表明珠江流域风险性较高,需要从降低流域危害度方面治理;广东省风险性波动较大,主要受水资源开发利用率以及暴露度的影响,应从这两方面降低风险性;广西和云南省整体风险性偏低,但近期有增大趋势,需要注意防范气候变化的影响,降低耕地暴露度和经济暴露度。
[Abstract]:Flood and waterlogging is one of the most serious natural disasters in China. In recent years, due to global warming, climate change has led to frequent events of flood and waterlogging disasters, and China has suffered more and more losses. Using the method of combining function and index, this paper constructs the risk assessment function of flood disaster, and evaluates the risk of flood disaster in Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region and Yunnan Province from 2001 to 2014. The results show that the risk in the Pearl River basin is relatively high in 14 years, the risk is medium and high, and the situation is severe, the risk in Guangdong Province is slightly lower than that in the Pearl River basin, and the risk in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region is lower than that in the Pearl River Basin, and the risk in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region is lower than that in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. Only 3 years are low risk and below, the other years are medium risk, but at present the risk is increasing, we should pay attention to prevent the risk, Yunnan Province has the lowest risk in 14 years are in the low risk. The results show that the risk of Pearl River basin is high, and the risk of Guangdong Province is fluctuating greatly, which is mainly affected by the utilization rate of water resources and the degree of exposure, so the risk should be reduced from these two aspects. The overall risk of Guangxi and Yunnan is low, but there is an increasing trend in recent years, so we should pay attention to the influence of climate change and reduce the exposure of cultivated land and economy.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然基金青年项目(71403122) 江苏省自然基金青年项目(BK20140980) 教育部人文社科基金青年项目(14YJC630018)
【分类号】：P426.616;TV87

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