挑流消能风险分析与计算

发布时间：2018-05-03 23:37

本文选题：挑流消能 + 风险率　；参考：《新疆农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：水电工程中既想保证工程的安全又想综合效益得到最大,关键在于泄水建筑物的布置。随着下泄水流的流速越来越大,工程中高速水流的问题也越加严重,直接影响泄水消能系统的安全。本文研究了实际工程中的挑流消能风险以及对挑流消能方案的比选,本文主要内容和成果有:(1)本文首先阐述了风险分析、挑流消能的研究现状和风险的基础理论,着重分析和讨论了本文介绍的几种常用风险计算方法的特点,同样也总结出它们各自的不足之处,并给出了在Matlab软件中的几种概率分布随机数的抽样语言指令。(2)本文提出利用Matlab软件与蒙特卡罗法相结合的方法来计算挑流消能风险率,通过对算例和实际工程的风险计算以及方案比选,结果表明:该方法克服了对于单一使用蒙特卡罗法进行计算时工作量非常大、并受到计算机发展水平限制的不足。使用该方法将会大大提高计算的效率,减小工作量,同时也验证了其可以作为计算水利工程中挑流消能风险的一种方法,并且验证了使用Matlab软件进行方案比选的计算结果的精确性。(3)对挑流消能方案进行比选,综合考虑后决定采用多目标决策的方法。将改进层次分析法与Matlab软件相结合可以减小决策的工作量,且计算过程简单明了,易掌握,其可行性通过对实际工程的计算得到了验证。(4)对新疆大西沟水库溢洪道进行的挑流消能风险分析计算,对挑流方案进行的比选,以及对各不确定因素进行的灵敏性分析研究发现:下泄流量、冲坑系数和洪水过程对挑流消能风险的影响显著。
[Abstract]:The key of hydropower project is to ensure the safety of the project and get the maximum comprehensive benefit, and the key lies in the layout of the drainage structure. With the increasing flow velocity, the problem of high speed flow is becoming more and more serious, which directly affects the safety of energy dissipation system. In this paper, the risk of energy dissipation and the comparison of energy dissipation schemes in practical engineering are studied. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: (1) this paper first describes the risk analysis, the current situation of energy dissipation and the basic theory of risk. The characteristics of several commonly used risk calculation methods introduced in this paper are emphatically analyzed and discussed, and their respective shortcomings are also summarized. In this paper, the sampling language instruction of several probability distribution random numbers in Matlab software is given. In this paper, the method of combining Matlab software with Monte Carlo method is proposed to calculate the risk rate of energy dissipation. The results show that the method overcomes the heavy workload of single Monte Carlo method and is limited by the level of computer development. Using this method will greatly improve the efficiency of calculation and reduce the workload. At the same time, it can be used as a method to calculate the risk of energy dissipation in water conservancy projects. The accuracy of the calculation results of the scheme comparison and selection using Matlab software is verified. The method of multi-objective decision is adopted after comprehensive consideration. Combining the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the Matlab software can reduce the workload of decision making, and the calculation process is simple and clear, which is easy to grasp. The feasibility of the method is verified by the calculation of the actual project. (4) the analysis and calculation of the energy dissipation risk of the spillway of the Daxigou Reservoir in Xinjiang, and the comparison and selection of the diversion scheme are carried out. The sensitivity analysis of various uncertain factors shows that discharge, scour coefficient and flood process have significant effects on the risk of energy dissipation.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV653.3;TV135.2

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