气候变化与人类活动对开都河径流量的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 18:44

本文选题：气候变化 + 人类活动　；参考：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：开都河是我国著名的内陆河之一,同时作为博斯腾湖的一个重要的补给源,对流域的生态环境起着很重要的作用。并且开都河不仅为当地经济发展和生态平衡起到了重要的维持作用,而且担负着向塔里木河下游生态输水的重要任务。开都河径流量的变化将会对周边地区的生态环境以及农畜牧业发展产生重大影响。过去的几十年中,在区域气候变化和人类活动的共同作用下,开都河流域径流量发生了一系列的变化。本文利用近53年来,开都河流域水文、气象和人为因素资料,运用统计相关分析等有关理论与方法并结合非参数Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验等研究方法,揭示大山口站和焉耆站径流量与流域气候要素(降水、气温)时间序列的变化规律和趋势;接着分析影响开都河中下游径流量的有效灌溉面积,灌溉耗水量,耕地面积,人口,灌区引水量等人类活动因素的变化情况;最后采用灰色关联分析法计算并分析人为要素和气象要素对大山口站径流量和焉耆站径流量变化的权重,评价其影响程度,并进行对比分析。通过定量和定性分析所得到的结果如下:(1)近53年来,开都河大山口站年均径流量呈现递增趋势,变化率为0.1892(m3/s)/10a。1960~2012年期间,开都河大山口站年均径流量变化过程可以分为四个阶段。1960~1971年期间,呈现先减少后增加趋势。1972~1986年期间,呈现波动减少趋势。1987~2002年期间,呈现波动增加趋势。2002~2012年期间,呈现先减少后增加趋势,而且分别在1995年与1997年发生两次突变。开都河焉耆站年均径流量大体上呈现减少趋势。1960~2012年期间,开都河焉耆站年均径流量变化过程可以分为三个阶段。1960~1974年期间,呈现波浪式减少趋势,径流量减少了14.05亿m3。1975~2002年期间,呈现波浪式增加趋势。2003~2012年期间,大体上呈现减少趋势。在1993年发生了一次突变,2003年以后年均径流量持续下降。(2)通过分析开都河流域的6个气象站的气温和降水量变化趋势与突变检验得知,各个站气温和降水量都呈现上升趋势,但年平均气温上升趋势比年平均降水量更为显著。焉耆站年平均降水量没有发生突变,年均气温发生突变。和硕站年均气温和降水量都没有发生突变。和静站年均降水量和气温都发生突变。巴音布鲁克站年均气温没有突变发生,年均降水量发生突变。大山口站和巴伦台站年均气温和降水量都发生突变。各站年均降水量突变发生在1981~1986年和2008~2009年期间,年平均气温突变发生在1981~1989年和1996~1997年期间。(3)1960~2012年期间,人类活动和自然因素对径流量的影响在不同时间段呈现出不同的灰色相关权重。整体的趋势还是自然因素占据主导地位,这是由于人类活动影响的时间较短,在未来的趋势中,人为因素将占据主导地位。对于大山口站年均径流量来说,在1960~1971年期间,自然因素对径流量的影响最大;在1972~1986年期间,自然因素对径流量的变化起主导作用,人类活动的影响较少。1987~2003年期间,人类活动对径流量的影响开始增强。在2003~2012年期间,随着人类活动的日益频繁,人为因素已经成为径流量变化的主导因子,而自然因素对径流量的影响呈现弱化态势。对于焉耆站年均径流量来说,1960~1974年期间,自然因素对径流量的影响最大。1975~2002对径流量的影响开始增强,2003~2012年期间,人为因素已经成为径流量变化的主要因素。人类活动与气候变化对大山口站径流量与焉耆站径流量的不同时间段呈现出的不同灰色权重进行对比,得知焉耆站与人类活动因素的关联度较高,即受人类活动的影响比大山口站强。而且人类开始影响焉耆站径流量的时间比大山口径流量的早。
[Abstract]:The opening river is one of the famous inland rivers in our country, and is an important supply source of Bosten Lake, which plays an important role in the ecological environment of the river basin. And the opening river not only plays an important maintenance role for the local economic development and ecological balance, but also plays an important role in the ecological water transport to the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The changes in the river runoff will have a significant impact on the ecological environment and the development of farming and animal husbandry in the surrounding areas. In the past few decades, a series of changes have taken place in the open river basin under the common effects of regional climate change and human activities. In the last 53 years, the hydrology, meteorology and human factors in the capital of the Ku Du River Basin have been used in this paper. By using the relevant theories and methods of statistical correlation analysis, and combining with the non parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation test, the changes and trends of the runoff and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature) time series of the Dashan station and YanQi Railway Station are revealed, and the effective irrigation of the middle and lower reaches of the river is analyzed. The changes of human activity factors such as irrigation area, irrigation water consumption, arable land, population, irrigation area and so on. Finally, the grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate and analyze the weight of artificial elements and meteorological factors on the runoff of Dashan station and the change of the runoff of YanQi Railway Station, and to compare and analyze the influence degree. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out. The results are as follows: (1) in the last 53 years, the annual average flow rate of the grand Yamaguchi station in Kai Du River shows an increasing trend, the rate of change is 0.1892 (m3/s) /10a.1960~2012 years, the annual average runoff change process of the grand Yamaguchi station in Kai Du River can be divided into four stages.1960~1971 years, showing the first decreasing and then increasing trend in the period of.1972~1986 years. The trend of fluctuation decreases in.1987~2002 years, showing a trend of increasing trend in.2002~2012 years, showing a first decreasing trend, and two abrupt changes in 1995 and 1997. The annual average annual runoff of YanQi Railway Station is generally reduced in.1960~2012 years, and the annual average runoff process of the YanQi Railway Station of Kai Du River can be divided into two years. During the three phase of.1960~1974, the trend of wave type reduction was presented, the runoff was reduced by 1 billion 405 million m3.1975~2002 years, and the trend of wave type increased in the period of.2003~2012 years, which showed a general trend of decrease. A sudden change occurred in 1993, and the annual average annual runoff decreased continuously after 2003. (2) through the analysis of 6 gas in the capital of the capital River Basin The change trend of temperature and precipitation in the image station and the mutation test showed that the temperature and precipitation of each station showed an upward trend, but the annual average temperature rising trend was more significant than the annual average precipitation. The annual average precipitation in YanQi Railway Station did not change, the annual average temperature had a sudden change. The annual average precipitation and the temperature of the HeJing Railway Station are abrupt. The annual average temperature of the station and the annual average temperature and precipitation are abrupt abrupt. The annual mean temperature and precipitation of the station of the Dashan station and the Ba Lun Tai Railway Station are abrupt in 1981~1986 and 2008~ 2009, and the annual average temperature change occurs in 1981~ During the period of 1989 and 1996~1997. (3) during the period of 1960~2012, the effects of human activities and natural factors on the flow rate were different in different time periods. The overall trend or natural factors dominate, which is due to the short time of human activities, and in the future trend, human factors will occupy the main factor. In the period of 1960~1971 years, natural factors have the greatest impact on runoff; during the period of 1972~1986, the natural factors play a leading role in the change of runoff, and the influence of human activity is less in the period of.1987~2003 years, and the influence of human activity on the runoff begins to increase. During the period of 2003~2012, With the increasing frequency of human activities, human factors have become the leading factor of runoff change, and the influence of natural factors on the runoff shows a weakening trend. For the average annual runoff of YanQi Railway Station, the influence of natural factors on the runoff is the largest in the period of 1960~1974 years, and the influence of.1975~ 2002 on the runoff begins to increase, and the 2003~2012 year period is increased. Human activities and climatic changes have been compared with the different grey weights of the different time periods of the Dashan mouth station and the discharge of the YanQi Railway Station. It is found that the correlation between YanQi Railway Station and human activity is higher, that is, the influence of human activity is stronger than that of the great mountain pass. The time that human began to influence the runoff of YanQi Railway Station is earlier than that of the mountain.

【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P333

【参考文献】