西安市黑河金盆水库入库水量计算

发布时间：2018-05-07 10:02

本文选题：突变点 + TOPMODEL模型　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：西安市作为我国西部中心城市,供水安全与经济社会可持续发展密切相关。黑河金盆水库作为西安市主要供水工程,全球变化条件下水库入库水量的变化将直接影响城市供水保证程度。开展黑河金盆水库水源区的径流变化特征分析,在此基础上进行径流序列的修正计算,可为当地政府在西安市供水安全等方面提供参考。根据本文的分析计算,得到如下结论:(1)径流变化特征:运用有序聚类分析法和滑动T检验法得出突变年份为1990年;径流年内分配极不均匀,其中6～10月份,占年径流量的73.8%;运用Kendall秩次检验法,验证了黑峪口径流总体上呈减少趋势,且年、春、夏、冬各径流序列的减小趋势显著,而秋季的径流序列减小趋势不显著;用R/S分析法得出径流序列(年、春、夏、秋、冬)的持续性较强,即未来径流量依然处于减小的状态。(2)降水变化特征:研究区的降水量整体变化趋势不明显;年内分配,降水量非常不均匀,其中6～10月份,占年降水量的75.8%;研究区的降水没有与径流一致的突变点,也不存在明显的递减趋势,故研究区径流递减的主因不是降水。(3)蒸发变化特征:研究区内蒸发总体上呈减小趋势,年、春、夏、秋、冬蒸发系列减小趋势由大到小依次是年、冬、夏、秋、春;蒸发量在年内分配中不均匀,其中6～10月份,占年降水量的53.5%;研究区的蒸发与径流没有相反的变化趋势,故研究区径流递减的主因不是蒸发。(4)地形信息提取:基于Arcgis软件,利用DEM提取研究区的流向矩阵、汇流累积量、河网、汇流长度、自然子流域、地形指数等地形信息。(5)径流修正计算:将研究区划分为6个子流域,研究期径流系列分为突变点前与突变点后系列,利用遗传算法优选参数,验证TOPMODEL模型在研究区的适用性;经模型计算,研究期内金盆水库入库水量的还原/还现修正值分别为5.500亿m3、3.958亿m3。
[Abstract]:Xi'an, as the central city in the west of China, is closely related to the sustainable development of economy and society. As the main water supply project in Xi'an Heihe Jinpan Reservoir will directly affect the guarantee degree of urban water supply under the condition of global change. Based on the analysis of runoff variation characteristics of Heihe Jinpan Reservoir water source area, the modified calculation of runoff sequence can be used as a reference for local government in Xi'an water supply security. According to the analysis and calculation of this paper, the following conclusions are obtained: the variation characteristics of runoff are as follows: by using ordered cluster analysis and sliding T test, it is concluded that the abrupt change year is 1990, and the runoff distribution is extremely uneven in October. Using Kendall rank test method, it was verified that the runoff of Heiyukou had a decreasing trend in general, and the decreasing trend of runoff series in spring, summer and winter was significant, but that in autumn was not significant. The precipitation variation characteristics of runoff series (year, spring, summer, autumn, winter) are obtained by using R / S analysis, that is, runoff is still in a decreasing state in the future. The precipitation variation trend in the study area is not obvious, and the distribution in the year is not obvious. The precipitation in the study area is very uneven. In October, 75.8 percent of the annual precipitation. The precipitation in the study area is not consistent with the sudden change point of runoff, and there is no obvious decreasing trend. Therefore, the main cause of runoff decline in the study area is not precipitation. (3) evaporation in the study area generally shows a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend of evaporation series in year, spring, summer, autumn and winter is year, winter, summer, autumn and spring in order of year, winter, summer, autumn and spring; Evaporation was not evenly distributed in the year. In October, it accounted for 53.5% of the annual precipitation. There was no reverse trend between evaporation and runoff in the study area, so the main cause of runoff decline in the study area was not evaporation. 4) topographic information extraction: based on Arcgis software, Using DEM to extract the flow matrix, accumulation of runoff, river network, confluence length, natural subbasin, topographic index and other topographic information. 5) runoff correction calculation: the study area is divided into 6 subbasins. The runoff series in the study period can be divided into the series before and after the catastrophe point. The applicability of the TOPMODEL model in the study area is verified by genetic algorithm. During the study period, the reduction / reversion values of the water quantity in Jinpan reservoir are 550 million m ~ 3 and 395.8 million m ~ 3 respectively.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697

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