双控行动下流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型

发布时间：2018-05-08 17:25

本文选题：流域 + 初始水权分配　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期

【摘要】：以流域初始水权配置实践为导向,参考现有水权按照"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构进行初始配置的思路,在用水总量和用水强度控制的制度约束下,建立双控行动下流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型,以模拟各个层面水权相关利益主体之间的民主协商及其上级层面行政仲裁过程,实现"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的水权分配,充分兼顾分水的公平性与效率性,优化流域社会经济综合用水效益。在此基础上,提出多层递阶决策模型的迭代算法,对流域初始水权分配模型进行求解。并结合流域初始水权配置实践,验证多层递阶决策模型的可行性。研究方法的创新性体现为:一方面,构建的"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的目标函数,有效保障了流域整体的国内生产总值最大化,体现了双控行动下流域分水的经济效益性。同时,有效保障了流域内各省区之间、各市区分水的协调满意度最大化,体现了用水总量控制约束下流域分水的社会公平性;另一方面,构建的"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的约束条件,有效保障了各省区、各市区的配水比例与社会经济发展综合指数之间的匹配关系,提高了各省区之间、各市区之间的耦合协同发展效度,有效保障了双控行动下市区内各行业的用水目标达到预期的目标值,充分体现了流域内各省区、省区内各市区的经济社会发展需求以及市区内各行业的发展用水需求。从大凌河流域初始水权配置实践的多层递阶决策结果来看,流域社会经济综合效益的满意度达到0.993 4。其中内蒙古、辽宁、河北的水权分配比例分别为4.939%、93.731%、1.330%。与水利部试点方案进行对比分析可知,大凌河流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型结果与水利部试点方案相吻合。
[Abstract]:Based on the practice of watershed initial water rights allocation and referring to the idea of initial allocation of water rights according to the hierarchical structure of "watershed, province, district, urban area and industry", under the system constraints of total water use and water use intensity control, In order to simulate the process of democratic negotiation and administrative arbitration at the superior level, a multi-level hierarchical decision-making model of initial water rights allocation in river basin under double-control action is established to simulate the democratic negotiation among the stakeholders concerned with water rights at all levels. The distribution of water rights should be realized in the structure of "watershed, province, district, urban area and industry", and the equity and efficiency of water distribution should be fully taken into account, and the comprehensive water use benefit of society and economy of river basin should be optimized. On this basis, an iterative algorithm of multi-level hierarchical decision model is proposed to solve the initial water rights allocation model. The feasibility of the multi-level hierarchical decision model is verified by combining the practice of initial water rights allocation in the basin. On the one hand, the goal function of the hierarchical structure of "watershed, province, district, urban area and industry" can effectively guarantee the maximization of GDP of the whole basin. It reflects the economic benefit of watershed water distribution under double control action. At the same time, it effectively guarantees the maximization of the degree of satisfaction of the coordination between the provinces and regions in the basin and the city, which reflects the social equity of water distribution in the watershed under the control of the total amount of water; on the other hand, The constraint conditions of the hierarchical structure of "watershed, province, district, urban area and industry" effectively guarantee the matching relationship between the distribution ratio of water and the comprehensive index of social and economic development, and improve the relationship between provinces and regions. The coupling and synergetic development validity among different urban areas effectively ensures that the water use targets of the industries in the urban areas under dual control operations reach the expected target value, and fully reflects the provinces and regions in the river basin. The economic and social development needs of the provinces and districts and the development water demand of the industries in the urban areas. According to the results of multi-level hierarchical decision-making in the practice of initial water rights allocation in Daling River Basin, the satisfaction degree of the comprehensive social and economic benefits of the basin reaches 0.993 4. The distribution ratio of water rights in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Hebei is 4.939, 93.731and 1.330 respectively. Compared with the pilot scheme of Ministry of Water Resources, the results of the multi-level hierarchical decision-making model of the initial water right allocation in Daling River Basin are in agreement with the pilot scheme of the Ministry of Water Resources.
【作者单位】：北方工业大学经济管理学院;清华大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“三条红线刚性约束下流域初始水权分配模式与优化分配模型研究”(批准号:71603004) 国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色水权市场制度体系研究”(批准号:15ZDB164) 北方工业大学—清华大学合作项目“初始水权分配技术与制度创新研究”(批准号:20160099) 北方工业大学青年拔尖人才培育计划项目“协调发展视角下京津冀科技资源配置效率评价体系研究”(批准号:XN018035)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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