基于水量变化的塔里木河统一管理成效评价

发布时间：2018-05-09 01:29

  本文选题：水量变化 + 变异系数　； 参考：《自然资源学报》2016年11期

【摘要】：为科学明确评价塔里木河统一管理成效,论文基于源流及干流的来水与耗水量数据,利用非参数检验、周期叠加模型等构建人类活动对源流区水量影响分离模型,进而结合距平百分比和变异系数等参数,对比分析统一管理措施对塔里木河利用管理水平的影响,结果表明:1)人类活动对源流区水资源的影响程度在1994—2001、2002—2010、2011—2013年呈减弱趋势,流域过度引水的现象得到一定的好转,源流区水资源利用水平和管理效能提高;2)实施统一管理后,干流来水保证度提高,干流来水距平百分比的变异系数由-4.67减小至0.33,源流与干流来水距平百分比差异的平均值由-19.6%变为-4.9%,且源流干流来水差异值累积距平曲线由上升转为下降,源流和干流来水的波动性减弱,尤其是干流来水波动性要弱于源流,同时源流及干流来水更具协调性,管理部门对塔里木河径流的调度和管控能力明显提升,统一管理成效显著。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the effectiveness of unified management of Tarim River scientifically and clearly, based on the data of the source and main stream, the paper constructs a separation model of the influence of human activities on the water flow in the source area by using non-parametric test and periodic superposition model. Furthermore, combining the parameters such as anomaly percentage and coefficient of variation, the effect of unified management measures on the utilization and management level of Tarim River is compared and analyzed. The results show that the influence of human activities on the water resources in the source region decreased in the period of 1994-2001,2002-2010and 2011-2013, and the phenomenon of excessive water diversion in the river basin improved to some extent. The utilization level and management efficiency of water resources in the source area are improved. (2) after the implementation of unified management, the guarantee degree of water coming from the main stream is improved. The coefficient of variation decreased from -4.67 to 0.33, the average value of the percentage difference between the source stream and the main stream was changed from -19.6% to -4.9%, and the cumulative anomaly curve of the difference value between the source stream and the main stream changed from rising to decreasing. The volatility of the source stream and the main stream is weakened, especially the fluctuation of the main stream is weaker than that of the source, at the same time, the source and the main stream are more harmonious, and the regulation and control ability of the management to the runoff of the Tarim River is obviously improved. Unified management has achieved remarkable results.
【作者单位】： 新疆农业大学林学与园艺学院;中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;新疆兵团勘测设计院(集团)有限责任公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471099,31370551,31400466) 中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目(XBBS-2014-13) 水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501060)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4
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本文编号：1863979