基于风险管理的混凝土坝变形预警指标拟定研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 18:50

本文选题：混凝土坝 + 风险管理　；参考：《水利学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：在混凝土坝风险理论和结构计算拟定变形指标方法基础上,研究建立基于风险管理的变形预警指标拟定方法,使得拟定的预警指标不仅满足工程安全需要,同时体现大坝风险的要求。首先根据混凝土坝工程安全运行与下游经济社会发展要求,确立大坝的风险等级标准;其次分析研究相应风险等级标准条件下,混凝土坝的破坏路径与模式;以混凝土坝溃决模式与坝体结构特性转异为纽带,借助专家经验,设置结构计算的荷载条件与约束标准,再采用有限元计算获得相应的变形预警指标值,进而建立了基于风险管理的混凝土坝变形预警指标拟定方法。以某水电站工程为案例,拟定了该水电站低风险运行的变形预警指标值,验证了该方法是切实可行的。
[Abstract]:Based on the risk theory of concrete dam and the method of drawing up deformation index for structural calculation, the method of drawing up early warning index of deformation based on risk management is studied, which makes the pre-warning index not only meet the need of engineering safety, but also meet the need of engineering safety. At the same time reflects the dam risk requirements. Firstly, according to the requirements of safe operation of concrete dam project and the development of downstream economy and society, the risk grade standard of dam is established, and the failure path and mode of concrete dam under the condition of corresponding risk grade standard are analyzed and studied. Taking the break mode of concrete dam and the structural characteristics of dam body as the link, with the help of expert experience, the load condition and constraint standard of structure calculation are set up, and the corresponding deformation warning index value is obtained by finite element calculation. Furthermore, the method of early warning index of concrete dam deformation based on risk management is established. Taking the project of a hydropower station as an example, the early warning index value of the low risk operation of the hydropower station is drawn up, and the feasibility of the method is verified.
【作者单位】：南京水利科学研究院;水利部大坝安全管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51209143) 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2010125) 江苏省水利科技项目(2015010) 广西水利厅科技项目(201614) 水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501033) 南京水利科学研究院基金项目(Y715017)
【分类号】：TV698.23

【相似文献】