区域用水结构演变规律及驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 21:02

本文选题：用水结构 + 驱动力　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水是生命之泉，生产之要，生态之基。短缺的水资源导致各个用水部门不能享有应有的水量配置。准确合理的预测用水结构可更好地为水资源开发利用和最严格水资源模拟调控提供服务和帮助，对于区域水资源配置和社会经济协调发展具有重要意义。而区域用水结构演变规律是个复杂过程，驱动因素对用水结构的影响有时十分活跃。论文以安徽省为研究区域，运用多种理论与方法模型对区域用水结构演变规律及驱动因子进行研究分析。取得的主要研究成果是：（1）利用信息熵的方法分析探讨了安徽省用水结构发展趋势。结果表明：安徽省用水结构的主要特点是农业用水占主导关键作用，工业及生活用水比例所占份额很小，用水结构信息熵总体呈现上升趋势,这符合所在长江中游标准水平。（2）根据产业用水系统复杂性特征，应用现代复合系统和协同学的原理和方法，构造了水资源产业结构协同度模型。实证研究得出安徽省水资源产业系统协同度不高，给出了缩小农业用水比例，提倡节约用水，大力发展第三产业等产业结构调整建议。（3）在安徽省用水结构驱动力分析中，选取影响水资源利用结构变化的14个驱动因子，采用主成分分析方法，筛选出三个主成分。归纳总结为人口增长、科技进步、经济发展状况三类。筛选出了影响安徽省用水构成变化较为重要的的驱动力因子是工业比重、节水灌溉面积、GDP城镇消费水平和有效灌溉面及人均绿化面积等。归纳总结为人口增长、科技进步、经济发展状况三类。（4）采用驱动力指数计算水资源利用结构复杂性综合驱动力指数，确定各区域的影响程度，并运用ArcGIS软件将计算结果可视化。结果表明：合肥、亳州、宿州、巢湖、淮南等地用水结构驱动因子较为复杂，，用水结构变化趋势较为良好。马鞍山、宣城、芜湖、铜陵用水结构向合理方向演的速度变较慢。
[Abstract]:Water is the spring of life, production, ecological basis. The shortage of water resources leads to the lack of water allocation in various water sectors. Accurate and reasonable water structure prediction can provide better service and help for the development and utilization of water resources and the strictest regulation and control of water resources. It is of great significance for the regional water resources allocation and the coordinated development of social economy. The evolution of regional water structure is a complex process, and the influence of driving factors on water structure is very active. Taking Anhui Province as the research area, this paper studies and analyzes the evolution law and driving factor of regional water use structure by using various theory and method models. The main findings of the study are: 1) the development trend of water use structure in Anhui Province is analyzed by using the method of information entropy. The results show that the main characteristics of water use structure in Anhui Province are that agricultural water use plays a leading and key role, the proportion of industrial and domestic water consumption is very small, and the information entropy of water use structure is on the whole rising, which accords with the standard level of the middle reaches of Yangtze River. 2) according to the complex characteristics of industrial water use system and the principles and methods of modern composite system and Synergetics, a water resources industrial structure synergy degree model is constructed. The empirical study shows that the coordination degree of water resources industry system in Anhui Province is not high, and puts forward some suggestions for the adjustment of industrial structure, such as reducing the proportion of agricultural water use, advocating water saving and vigorously developing the tertiary industry. 3) in the driving force analysis of water use structure in Anhui Province, 14 driving factors affecting the change of water use structure were selected, and three principal components were selected by principal component analysis (PCA). Summarized for population growth, scientific and technological progress, economic development of three types. The most important driving factors influencing the change of water use composition in Anhui Province are industrial proportion, water saving irrigation area, GDP consumption level, effective irrigation area and per capita green area, etc. Summarized for population growth, scientific and technological progress, economic development of three types. The driving force index is used to calculate the structural complexity of water resources utilization, and the influence degree of each region is determined, and the calculation results are visualized by ArcGIS software. The results show that the driving factors of water use structure in Hefei, Bozhou, Suzhou, Chaohu and Huainan are more complex, and the trend of water use structure is better. Ma'anshan, Xuancheng, Wuhu, Tongling water structure to the reasonable direction of the speed becomes slower.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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