不同水土保持工程下山洪预报模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 22:17

本文选题：洪水预报 + HEC-HMS　；参考：《太原理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：受降雨条件、前期土壤含水量情况、流域下垫面条件等多方面因素的影响,山洪灾害事件常常发生,给生态环境、社会经济发展带来严重的损害。因此,如何把握洪水变化规律,科学合理地建立最优预报模型,准确实时地进行预报,减少山洪灾害发生,成为水文学者认真研究和探索的一个重要课题。本文以长治市绛河北张店典型流域为研究区域,采用北张店流域12个雨量站(里庄,中村,西上村,八泉,北张店,崔家庄,下安庄,吴而,郭家庄,王家湾,南坡,芳草沟)、1个水文站(北张店)1964~2016年的资料,分析流域洪水特性以及不同年代洪水变化规律,在分析的同时应该结合其下垫面条件。选择洪水预报方案构建预报模型,对参数进行率定、优化、敏感性分析,一部分洪水用于水文模型模拟,一部分场次洪水进行模型验证。对不同水土保持活动下产汇流参数进行研究,从而得出各种水土保持方案下产汇流的相关参数。分析了不同水保措施对产汇流影响,并对模型所选参数的取值进行分析。主要研究内容和取得成果如下:(1)北张店流域洪水特性分析。对北张店水文站64场洪水年最大洪峰流量进行频率分析,将洪水分为大、中、小3类。分析洪峰流量年际变化,洪峰流量整体呈下降趋势,大洪水主要发生在60年代,中洪水在70年代发生频率最大,为33.3%。从80年代后,小洪水发生场次逐渐增加,发生的频率可达94.4%。分析洪峰流量年内变化,小洪水主要产生于7~8月,中洪水主要产生于7月,大洪水主要产生于6、7、8月。实施水保措施后,洪水洪量和洪峰流量衰减幅度分别为10.7%~42.7%和19.3%~75.9%,滞时衰减幅度达100%。可知水保措施对削减洪量和洪峰流量及延长滞时有显著效果。(2)北张店流域HEC-HMS模型构建。根据北张店降雨径流资料,建立流域产汇流模型。根据模型原理在该流域构建了HEC-HMS模型,产流模式采用SCS曲线法(SCS Curve Number),坡面汇流采用SCS单位线法(SCS unit hydrograph),基流模块计算采用指数消退法(Exponential recession),河道汇流模块采用马斯京根法(Muskingum)。科学合理的构建适合于北张店流域的水文模型为洪水预报奠定基础。(3)北张店流域洪水预报实例分析。在1964~2016年期间,利用目标函数法和人工试错法结合对20场洪水模型参数进行率定,利用内尔德米德算法优化参数,采用扰动分析方法对其敏感性具体分析,对44场洪水进行验证模拟。根据模型敏感性参数按影响程度由大到小为径流曲线数CN、滞时Lag Time。CN与洪峰流量、洪量呈正相关关系。验证期模拟洪水合格率为77.3%,预报结果达到乙级标准,对研究区未来洪水预报有相当高的参考价值。(4)北张店流域不同水土保持工程措施对模型参数影响研究。对不同水土保持活动下产汇流参数进行研究,不同水土保持工程措施下产汇流进行计算分析,并对特定水保措施下模型所选参数的取值进行分析。从水保措施对模型参数的影响上来看,采取鱼鳞坑水保措施后,子流域鱼鳞坑面积增加15%,CN减小3.75%,产流能力下降;当谷坊增加15座时,汇流时间增加,Lag Time将延长9%。从而延缓了河道汇流过程。
[Abstract]:Influenced by the conditions of rainfall, the water content in the early stage and the conditions of the underlying surface of the basin, the mountain flood events often occur, which bring serious damage to the ecological environment and the social and economic development. Therefore, how to grasp the law of the flood change, establish the optimal forecast model scientifically and rationally, accurately and accurately predict the flood, and reduce the mountain torrents The occurrence of disasters has become an important topic for hydrology scholars to study and explore. This paper takes the typical river basin of Zhangdian, Hebei, Changzhi as the research area, and uses 12 rainfall stations in the northern Zhangdian River Basin (Li Zhuang, Zhong village, West upper village, eight spring, North Zhangdian, Cui Jia Zhuang, Xia an Zhuang, Wu, Guo Jia Zhuang, Wangjiawan, south slope, Fang Cao gully), and 1 hydrological stations (North Zhang) The data of 1964~2016 years are used to analyze the characteristics of river basin flood and the law of flood change in different years. At the same time, we should combine the underlying surface conditions with the analysis, select the flood forecast scheme to build the forecast model, determine the parameters, optimize and analyze the sensitivity, some flood is used in the hydrological model simulation, and a part of the field flood model is modeled. The parameters of the runoff yield under different soil and water conservation activities were studied, and the related parameters of the runoff yield under various soil and water conservation schemes were obtained. The effects of different water conservation measures on the runoff and confluence were analyzed, and the values of the parameters selected were analyzed. The main contents and results were as follows: (1) the analysis of flood characteristics in the northern Zhangdian basin. The annual maximum flood peak flow rate of 64 fields in the North Zhangdian hydrological station is analyzed, and the flood is divided into 3 types: large, medium and small. Analysis of the annual variation of the flood peak flow, the overall flow of the flood peak is decreasing, the major flood occurs mainly in 60s, and the middle flood occurs most frequently in 70s, and the occurrence of the small flood is gradually increased after the 33.3%. from 80s. The occurrence frequency can reach 94.4%. analysis Hong Feng flow year change, small flood is mainly produced in 7~8 month, middle flood is mainly produced in July, large flood is mainly produced in 6,7,8 month. After implementing water conservation measures, Flood flood and Hong Feng flow attenuation amplitude are respectively 10.7%~42.7% and 19.3%~75.9%, the lag time attenuation range is 100%. knowable that water conservation measures are cut. The HEC-HMS model of the northern Zhangdian basin is constructed. According to the rainfall runoff data in northern Zhangdian, the model of the catchment runoff is established. According to the model principle, the HEC-HMS model is built in this basin. The runoff yield model is based on the SCS curve method (SCS Curve Number) and the SCS unit line method (SCS unit) is used for the slope confluence. Hydrograph), the calculation of the basic flow module uses the exponential regression method (Exponential recession), the watercourse confluence module uses the Muskingum method (Muskingum). The scientific and reasonable construction of the hydrological model suitable for the northern Zhangdian basin lays the foundation for the flood forecast. (3) an example analysis of the flood water forecast in the North Zhangdian basin. During the period of 1964~2016, the target function is used. The method and artificial test and error method are combined to determine the parameters of the 20 flood model, and the Neil Demy DE algorithm is used to optimize the parameters, and the sensitivity is analyzed by the perturbation analysis method. The 44 field floods are simulated and simulated. According to the sensitivity parameters of the model, the number of runoff curves is CN, and the lag time Lag Time.CN and the flood peak flow are found. There is a positive correlation of flood capacity. The qualified rate of the simulated flood is 77.3%, the result of the forecast reaches the standard of grade B and has a high reference value to the future flood forecast in the study area. (4) the influence of different soil and water conservation engineering measures on the model parameters in the northern Zhangdian basin. According to the effect of water conservation measures on the model parameters, the fish scale pit area increased by 15%, CN decreased by 3.75%, and the flow capacity decreased, and the confluence time was 15 when the valley was increased by 15. The increase of Lag Time will prolong 9%., thus slowing down the confluence process of the river.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S157;TV122

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