西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰湖溃决的预测模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 01:10

本文选题：喜马拉雅山 + 冰湖溃决　；参考：《冰川冻土》2016年02期

【摘要】：以西藏喜马拉雅山地区的冰湖为研究对象,基于现有的冰湖溃决预测方法,提出了建立冰湖溃决预测方法的关键点,即选取的指标必须能够体现冰湖的动态变化特征.在定量分析的建模过程中应该采用不确定性的数学理论,对于冰湖溃决可能性的等级划分需要进行合理性及实用性验证.选取坝顶宽度、湖水面距坝顶高度与坝高之比、冰湖面积和补给冰川面积为预测指标,通过对西藏喜马拉雅山地区29个冰湖样本进行逻辑回归分析,建立了冰湖溃决的预测模型,并用所有样本进行了交叉验证.结果表明:该模型能够在分类应用中取得较好效果,根据溃决冰湖累积百分数随冰湖溃决可能性大小的变化曲线,将冰湖溃决的可能性划分为四个等级.以黄湖为例,把湖水面距坝顶高度与坝高之比作为冰湖溃决的诱变指标,分析了冰湖溃决可能性大小的变化规律.结合现有的冰湖溃决预测的定性方法,讨论了所建立的冰湖溃决预测模型的优点和缺点.
[Abstract]:Taking the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region of Tibet as the research object, based on the existing prediction methods of glacial lake outburst, the key point of establishing the prediction method of glacial lake outburst is put forward, that is, the selected index must be able to reflect the dynamic characteristics of the glacial lake. The mathematical theory of uncertainty should be used in the modeling process of quantitative analysis, and the rationality and practicability of the classification of the possibility of ice lake collapse should be verified. The width of the dam top, the ratio of the water surface to the height of the dam, the area of the glacial lake and the area of the recharge glacier are selected as the prediction indexes, and the logical regression analysis of 29 samples of the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region of Tibet is carried out. A prediction model of glacial lake outburst was established and cross-validated with all samples. The results show that the model can achieve good results in classification and application. According to the curve of cumulative percentage of collapsing ice lake with the possibility of ice lake collapsing, the possibility of ice lake collapse can be divided into four grades. Taking the Yellow Lake as an example, the ratio of the water surface to the height of the dam top is taken as the mutagenic index of the collapse of the ice lake, and the variation law of the possibility of the collapse of the ice lake is analyzed. Combined with the existing qualitative methods of prediction of glacial lake outburst, the advantages and disadvantages of the established prediction model of glacial lake outburst are discussed.
【作者单位】：西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院;西南石油大学油气藏地质与开发工程国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国土资源部地学空间信息技术重点实验室开放基金项目(KLGSIT2015-01) 西南石油大学青年教师“过学术关”资助计划项目(201131010020)资助
【分类号】：P343.6

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