长春市需水量预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 06:58

本文选题：需水量预测 + 灰色模型　；参考：《长春工程学院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：长春市地处吉林省中部,是汇集汽车产业、电影产业、文化产业和生态发展于一体的著名城市,2010年,全市总人口758.89万人,土地总面积20571km2。长春市境内水系主要由第二松花江、拉林河两大水系的部分河流和西北部闭流区组成。多年平均水资源总量为27.46×108m3,人均水资源占有量368 m3,不足全国的六分之一和全省的四分之一,不足全国平均水平的九分之一。由于长春市所在流域内人口众多,工农业生产发达,用水量大,水资源开发利用程度较高。根据多年供用水资料统计,长春市多年平均总用水量占当地水资源量的71.0%,水资源短缺已成为长春市社会经济持续发展的瓶颈。鉴于此,本论文对长春市需水量进行预测研究。本文根据长春市历年用水情况,采用多元线性回归模型、GM(1,1)模型、基于牛顿插值的灰色模型三种模型对长春市2015、2020年的城市需水量进行预测。通过三种模型的对比分析,最终确定最适合长春市的预测模型及未来需水量,根据长春市的行业用数比例及各县市用水比例确定长春市的需水系统结构。根据确定的长春市需水结构及长春市现有条件下的供水量,对未来的城市规划及产业结构发展提供合理建议。
[Abstract]:Changchun, located in the middle of Jilin Province, is a famous city with a total population of 7.5889 million people and a total land area of 20571km2. The water system in Changchun is mainly composed of the second Songhua River and the Lalin River. The annual average water resource is 27.46 脳 10 ~ 8m ~ 3, and the per capita water resource is 368m ~ 3, which is less than 1/6 of the whole country and 1/4 of the whole province, and 1/9 of the national average. Because of the large population in Changchun river basin, the industrial and agricultural production is developed, the water consumption is large, and the degree of water resources development and utilization is high. According to the statistics of water supply and use for many years, the average annual total water consumption in Changchun accounts for 71.0% of the local water resources. The shortage of water resources has become the bottleneck of the sustainable development of social economy in Changchun. In view of this, this paper carries on the forecast research to the Changchun water demand. According to the situation of water use in Changchun in the past years, this paper uses the multivariate linear regression model and grey model based on Newton interpolation to forecast the urban water demand in Changchun in 2015 and 2020. Through the comparative analysis of the three models, the forecast model and the future water demand of Changchun City are determined, and the water demand system structure of Changchun City is determined according to the ratio of the number of industry and the proportion of water used in each county and city. According to the determined water demand structure of Changchun and the water supply under the existing conditions in Changchun, reasonable suggestions are provided for the future urban planning and industrial structure development.
【学位授予单位】：长春工程学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV213.4

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