基于D数理论的洪涝灾害风险评估与恢复力评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 12:49

本文选题：洪涝灾害 + 风险评估　；参考：《湖南科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：洪涝灾害的风险评估和恢复力评估一直是灾害风险研究的重要领域,对评估方法的探索也成为了研究热点。本文主要讨论了基于D数理论的洪涝灾害风险评估模型和恢复力评估模型。主要内容如下:(1)针对洪涝灾害风险评估中的不确定性问题,提出了基于熵AHP和D数的洪涝灾害风险评估模型,即将洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系中的第三级指标用D数表示,同时引入结构熵权法确定相应各级指标的权重,并基于D数合成法则给出了各地洪涝灾害风险大小的排序方案,最后通过实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。(2)考虑了基于D数距离的洪涝灾害恢复力评估模型。首先基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)概念构建了用D数表示的洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,并用结构熵权法确定了各级指标的权重,建立了基于D数距离-TOPSIS方法的恢复力大小的排序方案,最后应用实例验证了该方法的可行性。(3)讨论了基于语言D数的洪涝灾害风险评估模型,相应地用结构熵权法确定了各级指标的权重,并给出了基于语言D数的洪涝灾害风险大小的排序方案,最后讨论了不同语言尺度函数下洪涝灾害风险大小的评估结果,并将其与(1)中的结果进行了比较分析。(4)建立了基于语言D数距离的洪涝灾害恢复力评估模型,并用熵权法确定了相应各级指标的权重,构建了基于语言D数距离—TOPSIS方法的洪涝灾害恢复力大小的排序方案,并结合实例与(2)中的结果进行了比较分析。最后,对全文进行了总结。
[Abstract]:The risk assessment and resilience assessment of flood and waterlogging disaster has been an important field of disaster risk research, and the exploration of assessment methods has also become a research hotspot. This paper mainly discusses the flood risk assessment model and resilience assessment model based on D number theory. The main contents are as follows: 1) aiming at the uncertainty in flood and waterlogging disaster risk assessment, a flood risk assessment model based on entropy AHP and D number is proposed, that is, the third level index of flood and waterlogging risk assessment index system is expressed by D number. At the same time, the structure entropy weight method is introduced to determine the weight of the corresponding indexes at all levels, and the ranking scheme of flood hazard risk is given based on the D-number combination rule. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by an example. Firstly, based on the concept of pressure-state-response (PSRs), a D-number index system for evaluating the resilience of flood and waterlogging disaster is constructed, and the weight of every index is determined by the method of structural entropy weight. The ranking scheme of resilience based on D number distance TOPSIS method is established. Finally, the feasibility of this method is verified by an example. Finally, a flood hazard risk assessment model based on language D number is discussed. The weight of each index is determined by the method of structure entropy weight, and the ranking scheme of flood hazard risk based on language D number is given. Finally, the evaluation results of flood hazard risk under different language scale functions are discussed. A model for evaluating the resilience of flood disaster based on the distance of language D number is established, and the weight of the corresponding indexes at all levels is determined by entropy weight method. A ranking scheme of flood resilience based on the language D number distance TOPSIS method is constructed, and the results are compared and analyzed with an example. Finally, the full text is summarized.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV87;X43

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