河道洪水演算的MC-RCM模型及其比较研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 13:16

本文选题：马斯京根法 + 水位流量曲线　；参考：《水电能源科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：MC-RCM模型是一种在马斯京根法的基础上引入水位流量曲线的洪水演算方法,为进一步验证MC-RCM模型在实际河段中及不同演算条件下的精确性,分别采用试错法、最小二乘法、马斯京根—康吉法及MC-RCM模型四种演算方法对长江李庄至泸县段的10例天然洪水进行流量演算分析,并引入五种评价指标,比较了MC-RCM模型与其他演算方法在不同演算时段下流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度等方面的优劣。结果表明,MC-RCM模型在流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度上相比其他方法均具有一定优势,且在较长演算时段中优势更为明显。因此,MC-RCM模型作为河道洪水演算的可靠方法,可在水文资料充分的情况下修正或校验马斯京根法的演算成果。
[Abstract]:MC-RCM model is a flood calculation method based on Muskinggen method. In order to further verify the accuracy of MC-RCM model in actual river reach and under different calculation conditions, the trial and error method and least square method are used respectively. Muskinggen-Kangji method and MC-RCM model were used to calculate the discharge of 10 natural floods from Li Zhuang to Luxian on the Yangtze River, and five evaluation indexes were introduced. The advantages and disadvantages of MC-RCM model and other calculation methods in traffic calculation accuracy, calculus reliability and Hong Feng traffic accuracy are compared. The results show that the MC-RCM model has some advantages over other methods in traffic calculation accuracy, calculation reliability and Hong Feng traffic accuracy, and is more obvious in the longer calculation period. Therefore, MC-RCM model can be used as a reliable method for river flood calculation, and it can be used to correct or verify the results of Maaskin's method under the condition of sufficient hydrological data.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402200)
【分类号】：TV122

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