水光互补协调运行的理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 23:21

本文选题：水光互补 + 虚拟水电　；参考：《西安理工大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：随着我国环境污染、能源紧缺等问题日益凸显,可再生能源得到了重视和发展,尤其是规模化的光伏发电得到了快速发展。但是,光伏发电存在着随机性、间歇性、波动性等特点,这给电网的调度带来了困难,也影响了光伏发电的并网消纳。因此,采用水光互补的新思路,研究光伏发电并网消纳问题,具有重要理论意义和应用价值。本文以目前全球最大的黄河龙羊峡320MW光伏电站与龙羊峡、拉西瓦等水电站为研究对象,采用了一种全新的水光电互补协调运行方式,研究光伏发电并网消纳问题。旨在探讨水光互补协调运行的理论和方法,研究成果具有较强的系统性、科学性和可操作性,为水光互补提供了理论支撑。论文取得的主要研究成果如下:(1)构建了水光互补协调运行的理论与方法体系,为光伏的并网消纳提供了新途径。在对比了分析了水电与光电各自的特点、水光互补特性、水光互补的基本原理、水光互补的基本模式等基础上,提出了一些水光互补协调运行的新概念,建立了光伏出力预测和水光互补协调运行模型,发展了水光互补协调运行的理论与方法。(2)针对光伏的随机性、间歇性、波动性等特点,以及水电的快速调节的优点,分析了短期调度中水电对光伏的补偿能力和水光互补电源的调峰能力,揭示了水光互补的机理,即通过水电一次补偿光电锯齿波动和二次补偿光电的间歇性、波动性和随机性;水电可以在短期调度中以容量支持光电,光电则可以在中长期调度和调峰运行中以电量支持水电。(3)对比了水电与光电各自的特点,分析了水光互补性以及阐述水光互补的基本模式;研究水光互补的基本原理以及计算方法;提出了“虚拟水电”的概念,并分析其内涵,将水电打包上网的新能源被视为水电站的“虚拟机组”。(4)针对龙羊峡光伏电站短期和超短期出力预测问题,建立了四种不同的预测模型:马尔科夫链模型、逐步回归预测模型、自适应BP神经网络预测模型和自适应Elman神经网络模型。分析了各模型的特点和优点:马尔科夫模型着重的是预测相邻两天的功率输出值范围,其建模过程简单,易于实现;BP神经网络和Elman神经网络模型适应于小时出力的预测,采用自适应优化隐含层节点数,通过网格搜索优化得到准确的参数,其模型预测精度高;逐步回归模型采用的是线性预测法,对晴天的出力预测较为准确,但是阴天和雨天预测误差较大。(5)建立了基于龙羊峡水光互补协调运行的调峰能力最大数学模型,提出了基于模拟迭代的模拟优化方法,研究了水光互补对龙羊峡调峰能力的影响。通过求解调峰能力最大模型,反推水光互补总出力过程。采用模型分别对晴天、阴天和雨天三种不同的典型模式进行计算,结果表明:经过水光互补之后,龙羊峡调峰能力分别可提高18%,9%和5%。采用模型进行了长系列计算,结果表明:龙羊峡调峰能力平均可提高10%左右。(6)研究了水光互补对龙羊峡、拉西瓦两水库日水量调度的影响。晴天、阴天和雨天三种模式下的计算结果表明:经过水光互补之后,龙羊峡一日的出库水量变化很小,出库水量变化量最大相差0.21%;此外,经过拉西瓦水库的反调节以后,水位波动幅度最大仅为1.32m,相对于未互补之前,增幅为0.07m,占拉西瓦水库消落深度的0.58%,日水量调度基本不受水光互补影响。(7)分析了水光互补对下游水资源综合利用的影响。由于拉西瓦水位最大增幅是0.07m,水量几乎保持不变,故龙羊峡水光互补后对下游电站发电量几乎无影响。由于拉西瓦水库按下游综合用水要求放水,下放的水量与水光互补无关,因此水光互补协调运行对下游梯级水电站调峰、调频没有影响。通过拉西瓦水库反调节,分析得出水光互补对下游综合用水基本没影响,满足了黄河下游水资源综合利用要求。
[Abstract]:With the environmental pollution, energy shortage and other problems become increasingly prominent, renewable energy has been paid attention and developed, especially the scale of photovoltaic power generation has been developed rapidly. However, the photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of randomness, intermittency and volatility, which has brought difficulties to the adjustment of the power grid, and it also affects the grid cancellation of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, it is of great theoretical significance and application value to study the problem of grid cancellation of photovoltaic power generation by using a new method of water and light complementation. This paper is based on the current world's largest the Yellow River Longyangxia 320MW photovoltaic power station and Longyangxia, Rasiva and other hydropower stations as the research object, and uses a new water and photoelectric complementary coordinated operation mode to study the photovoltaic power. This paper aims to discuss the theory and method of the complementary coordinated operation of water and light. The research results have strong systematic, scientific and operability, which provide theoretical support for the complementation of water and light. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the theory and method system of complementary coordinated operation of water and light is constructed, and the grid is connected to the grid for photovoltaic. On the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of hydroelectricity and electricity, the complementary characteristics of hydrooptic and light, the basic principle of the complementary water and light, the basic model of the complementary water and light, some new concepts of the complementary coordinated operation of water and light are put forward, the model of the photovoltaic output prediction and the complementary coordination operation of the hydrolight is established, and the complementation of the water and light complementation is developed. The theory and method of coordinated operation. (2) in view of the characteristics of randomness, intermittency and volatility of the photovoltaic, and the advantages of the rapid adjustment of the hydropower, the compensation capacity of the hydropower for the photovoltaic and the peak regulating ability of the hydrooptic complementary power supply are analyzed in the short term scheduling, and the mechanism of the complementation of the water and light complementation is revealed, which is to compensate the fluctuation of the photoelectric sawtooth through the water and electricity once and the two The second compensation is intermittent, undulation and randomness. Hydropower can support optoelectronic capacity in short-term scheduling, electricity can support electricity and electricity in medium and long term scheduling and peak regulation. (3) comparing the characteristics of hydroelectricity and electricity, analysis of the complementarity of hydroelectric and light and the basic model of complementation of water and light, and study the interaction of light and light. The concept of "virtual Hydropower" is proposed and the concept of "virtual Hydropower" is proposed, and its connotation is analyzed. The new energy for hydroelectric packaging is considered as the "virtual unit" of the hydropower station. (4) four different forecasting models are established to predict the short-term and ultra short term output of the Longyangxia photovoltaic power station: the Markov chain model, gradually The regression prediction model, adaptive BP neural network prediction model and adaptive Elman neural network model are used to analyze the characteristics and advantages of each model: the Markoff model focuses on the prediction of the power output range of two adjacent days, the modeling process is simple and easy to be realized, and the BP neural network and the Elman neural network model are adapted to the hour output. It is predicted that the adaptive optimization of hidden layer nodes is adopted, and the accurate parameters are obtained through the grid search. The prediction accuracy of the model is high. The stepwise regression model uses linear prediction method, which is more accurate, but the prediction error of cloudy and rainy days is larger. (5) a coordinated operation based on the complementary and coordinated operation of Longyangxia's water and light is established. The maximum mathematical model of peak capacity is proposed, and a simulation optimization method based on simulated iteration is proposed. The effect of water and light complementation on the peak adjustment ability of Longyangxia is studied. By solving the maximum model of peak shaving ability, the total force process of water and light complementation is pushed back. The models are calculated with three different typical models, sunny, cloudy and rainy. The results show that: After the complementation of water and light, the peak regulating ability of Longyangxia can be increased by 18%, 9% and 5%. by a long series of calculations. The results show that the average peak adjustment ability of Longyangxia can be increased by about 10%. (6) the influence of water and light complementation on the daily water scheduling of Longyangxia and Laxiwa two reservoir is studied. The calculation knot under three modes of sunny day, cloudy and rainy day is studied. The results show that after the complementation of water and light, the amount of water output in Longyangxia is very small and the maximum difference is 0.21%. In addition, after the reverse regulation of the Laxiwa reservoir, the maximum fluctuation of the water level is only 1.32M. Compared with the non complementation, the increase is 0.07m, which accounts for 0.58% of the falling depth of the Laxiwa reservoir, and the daily water quantity dispatching base. It is not affected by complementary water and light complementation. (7) the effect of water and light complementation on the comprehensive utilization of downstream water resources is analyzed. Because the maximum increase of the water level of Rasiva is 0.07m, the amount of water is almost constant, so the water and light of Longyangxia have almost no effect on the power generation of the downstream power station. Since the Rasiva reservoir is required to release water according to the comprehensive water use in the lower reaches, the amount of water released from the lower level is the same. The complementation of water and light has nothing to do with each other. Therefore, the complementary coordinated operation of water and light has no influence on the peak adjustment of the cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches. Through the inverse adjustment of the Rasiva reservoir, it is concluded that the complementary water and light has no effect on the comprehensive water use in the lower reaches, and meets the requirements of the comprehensive utilization of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV737

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