径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以渭河流域为例

发布时间：2018-05-27 05:03

本文选题：气候变化 + 人类活动　；参考：《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：定量区分气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,对区域水资源管理具有重要的现实意义.本文基于实测径流数据和前人重构的自然径流数据,借助趋势分析、突变检验、多元线性回归等方法,定量分析渭河流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,并通过与水文敏感性系数方法的分析结果相比较,进一步验证结果.结果表明:1965—2012年华县站、张家山站和状头站的实测径流分别以7.99×10~8、2.86×10~8和0.787×10~8 m~3·(10a)~(-1)的趋势减小(α0.05).气象要素中,渭河干流的风速和相对湿度呈显著减小的趋势,气温呈显著增加的趋势(α0.05);泾河流域的相对湿度呈显著减小的趋势,潜在蒸散发和气温呈显著增加的趋势(α0.05);北洛河流域各气象要素的变化趋势同泾河流域相似.突变检验表明华县站、张家山站和状头站的年实测径流分别在1993、1996和1994年前后发生了突变,其径流分别下降了38.81%、47.67%和42.22%.多元回归分析表明气候变化对华县站、张家山站和状头站径流变化的贡献率分别为49.30%、38.05%和69.86%.水文敏感性分析方法的结果同多元回归方法相似,气候变化对3个水文站径流变化的贡献率分别为48.61%、39.21%和64.86%.
[Abstract]:It is of great practical significance to quantitatively distinguish the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff for regional water resources management. Based on the measured runoff data and the reconstructed natural runoff data, this paper quantitatively analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin by means of trend analysis, abrupt change test and multivariate linear regression. The results are further verified by comparison with the analytical results of hydrological sensitivity coefficient method. The results show that the observed runoff of Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station in the year 1965-2012 are 7.99 脳 10 ~ (8) ~ 2.86 脳 10 ~ (-8) and 0.787 脳 10 ~ (8) m ~ (3) ~ (10 ~ (10) ~ (-1), respectively (伪 0.05 ~ (-1). Among the meteorological elements, the wind speed and relative humidity of the main stream of Weihe River decreased significantly, the air temperature increased significantly (伪 0.05), and the relative humidity of Jing River basin decreased significantly. The potential evapotranspiration and temperature increased significantly (伪 0.05), and the variation trend of meteorological elements in the North Luohe River Basin was similar to that in the Jing River Basin. The abrupt change test showed that the annual measured runoff of Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station had a sudden change before and after 1993 / 96 and 1994 respectively, and the runoff decreased by 47.67% and 42.22%, respectively, in Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station, and the runoff was decreased by 38.81% and 42.22% respectively. Multiple regression analysis showed that the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change of Huaxian station Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station was 49.30% 38.05% and 69.8665% respectively. The result of hydrological sensitivity analysis is similar to that of multivariate regression method. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff variation in three hydrological stations is 48.61% and 64.86% respectively.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院;北京师范大学地理科学学部;河北工程大学矿业与测绘工程学院;
【基金】：国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130003120041)
【分类号】：P333

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