影响长江口深水航道骤淤的非常态天气过程Ⅱ:台风要素敏感性分析及典型台风路径

发布时间：2018-06-01 21:15

本文选题：长江口深水航道 + 骤淤　；参考：《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：为进一步研究台风中心气压、台风距离长江口距离(简称距离)、最大风速半径和移动风速4个典型参数对长江口航道骤淤的影响水平,采用正交试验方法,设计了64组典型试验工况,选择藤田-高桥圆形风场经验公式架构了台风场,然后采用SWAN模型模拟不同台风工况的波况,并计算牛皮礁站的波能。据波能的极差分析和方差分析,得出台风要素的敏感性次序。研究表明,长江口过境台风中,距离最敏感,而最大风速半径为较不敏感因素。选取主要的敏感性参数(距离、中心气压)为代表参数,概化移动风速和最大风速半径。在合理选取能够引起骤淤的临界波能的标准下,给出较易引发骤淤的典型包络线范围,为骤淤的预报提供了新的参考指标。
[Abstract]:In order to further study the influence of four typical parameters such as typhoon center pressure, typhoon distance from the Changjiang Estuary, maximum wind velocity radius and moving wind speed, on the sudden siltation of the Yangtze Estuary channel, the orthogonal test method is used. In this paper, 64 typical test conditions were designed. The typhoon field was constructed by using the empirical formula of the circular wind field of Fujida-Gaoqiao. Then the SWAN model was used to simulate the wave conditions of different typhoon conditions, and the wave energy of the Kupi reef station was calculated. According to wave energy range analysis and variance analysis, the sensitivity order of typhoon elements is obtained. The results show that the distance is the most sensitive and the maximum radius of wind velocity is the less sensitive factor in the Yangtze River Estuary transit typhoon. The main sensitive parameters (distance, center pressure) are selected as the representative parameters to generalize the moving wind speed and the maximum wind velocity radius. Under the standard of selecting reasonably the critical wave energy which can cause sudden siltation, the typical envelope range which is easy to cause sudden siltation is given, which provides a new reference index for the prediction of sudden siltation.
【作者单位】：上海河口海岸科学研究中心;上海交通大学水动力学教育部重点实验室;南京水利科学研究院河流海岸研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41206072) 2016年港口航道泥沙交通行业重点实验室开放基金(Yn216001)
【分类号】：TV148;U616

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