南水北调东线工程山东段突发事故风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-02 05:52

本文选题：突发事故 + 风险评估　；参考：《南水北调与水利科技》2017年04期

【摘要】：南水北调东线工程山东段由新修渠道、原有河道及湖泊、水库共同构成。输水干线多为开敞式且与当地交通道路交叉,南四湖和梁济运河承担航运任务,交通、航运等突发事故有可能影响正常输水,因而输水安全受到多种潜在突发事故的威胁。为能够在突发事故发生后采取有效的应急控制和处置措施,降低事故造成的损失,采用核对表法对工程突发风险源进行识别,确定突发事故类型,综合利用模糊意见集中决策和层次分析法建立风险评估体系,对南水北调东线工程山东段的突发事故风险进行评估,确定各类突发事故对工程的影响程度,经评定该工程的主要风险包括陆运和航运交通事故引发的突发风险,次要风险主要包括人为投毒、自然灾害及机器故障等原因引发的各类突发风险。该成果可为后续应急控制和处置方案的制定提供决策依据,同时可为其他资料短缺地区的风险评估提供参考。
[Abstract]:The Eastern Route of South-to-North Water transfer Project is composed of new channels, original rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The main lines of water conveyance are mostly open and cross with the local traffic roads. Nansihu Lake and Liangji Canal take on shipping tasks, traffic, shipping and other unexpected accidents may affect the normal water delivery, so the water conveyance safety is threatened by many potential emergencies. In order to take effective emergency control and disposal measures to reduce the loss caused by the accident, the method of checklist is used to identify the source of the sudden risk of the project, and the type of the sudden accident is determined. Comprehensive use of fuzzy opinion concentration decision-making and AHP to establish a risk assessment system, to assess the risk of sudden accidents in Shandong section of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, and determine the impact of all kinds of sudden accidents on the project. The main risks of the project include the sudden risks caused by land and shipping traffic accidents, and the secondary risks mainly include all kinds of sudden risks caused by man-made poisoning, natural disasters and machine failures. The results can provide a basis for decision making of subsequent emergency control and disposal schemes, as well as a reference for risk assessment in areas with short data.
【作者单位】：山东大学土建与水利学院;临沂市林业局;
【基金】：十二五”国家科技支撑项目(2015BAB07B02) 山东省重大水利科研与技术推广专项资助项目(SDSLKY201501;SDSLKY201222)~~
【分类号】：TV68

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