水利工程影响下的洪水预报及历史暴雨洪水重现研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 08:47

本文选题：TOPMODEL模型 + 水利工程　；参考：《大连理工大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：由于人口和社会生产力的急剧增长,水的问题已成为世界上日益严重的问题之-为了缓解防洪和兴利的矛盾,流域内修建了许多各种类型的水利水电工程。这些工程使流城的产汇流形成条件发生变化,以至于无论水文预报还是水文计算都不得不考虑它们的影响。第二松花江丰满水库流域位于中国北方辉发河流域,近年来,随着农田的开垦,大量湿地出现退化。为了缓解该地区水资源紧张的问题,流域内修建了大量的中小型水库和塘坝,对发生历史暴雨情况下的洪水过程产生了显著影响。研究下垫面变化与水利工程运行影响的洪水重现技术,对于科学指导流域防洪调度,以及规划流域及其水库的设计洪水,保证防洪安全具有重大意义,是松辽流域水利行业亟待解决的重大课题。本文选择第二松花江丰满水库以上流域为研究对象,定量分析流域近年来的气候变异和土地利用变化与水利工程建设及运行情况,定性和定量分析这些变化对径流产生怎样的影响；开发水利工程影响下的洪水预报模型,重点研究中小水利工程对洪水洪量和过程的影响规律,研究提出历史暴雨在水利工程运行影响下的洪水重现方法,对历史暴雨洪水在现状水利工程运行工况下进行重现。主要研究内容及成果如下：(1)采用Kendall秩次相关法、有序聚类法及线性回归检验法分析流域水文和气象要素的变化趋势,通过二者变化趋势的不一致性定性得到影响流域径流及洪水变化的因素。针对引起径流和洪水变化的气候要素和人类活动因子进行了深入的分析,气候要素包括：降雨、蒸发、气温、气压、日照、风速和相对湿度；人类活动因子包括下垫面变化因子和水利工程建设及运行因子。分别对这些因子进行趋势分析,分析结果表明气候变化和人类活动导致径流产生了一定的变化,特别是水利工程的运行对流域洪水特征有较大影响,在流域洪水预报中需考虑相应的影响。(2)建立了基于可变模糊理论的下垫面变化评价模型,对1980s和2000s两个年代土地利用进行了评价,结果显示两个年代的下垫面极其相似,只是“稍稍”有一些变化。人类活动主要表现为水利工程运行,进而采用气候弹性模型定量分析了气候变化和水利工程对径流影响的贡献量；其中气候要素占51%,水利工程占49%。对水利工程影响期分三个阶段分别计算水利工程对径流减少的影响量,并建立水利工程影响量和水利工程库容之间的关系。(3)基于聚合水库的思想,将众多水利工程聚合成一个水库,并根据各水利工程的基本调蓄规律制定聚合水库的蓄放水模拟图；然后将聚合水库的蓄放水模拟图与天然期洪水率定得到的TOPMODEL模型参数相结合,构建基于水利工程蓄放模拟的HD-TOPMODEL洪水预报模型。结果表明HD-TOPMODEL模拟精度有较大的提高,而且相比传统方法动态蓄水容量的TOPMODEL洪水预报模型,HD-TOPMODEL洪水预报模型能够反映水利工程的影响过程,且能利用当前水利工程库容信息实时校正水利工程的影响量,具有更高的模拟精度和更好的模拟效果。(4)首先根据流域现状水利工程数据得到现状水利工程下的HD-TOPMODEL模型参数,然后以历史暴雨洪水为输入得到丰满水库以上流域历史暴雨发生到当前水利工程情况下的洪水过程线,重现历史暴雨在现状水利工程条件下的洪水过程,重现结果表明,历史洪水发生在现状水利工程条件下洪量和峰值有减小的趋势,但是特殊极端大洪水中水利工程会出现一定量的放水,加上次生灾害的影响给防洪安全造成了威胁,应该着重注意防范。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid growth of population and social productivity, the problem of water has become an increasingly serious problem in the world - in order to alleviate the contradiction between flood control and profit making, many types of water conservancy and hydropower projects have been built in the basin. These projects have changed the formation conditions of the flow of flow in the city so that hydrological forecasts and hydrological calculations are made. They all have to consider their influence. Second the Songhua River Fengman reservoir basin is located in the Yellow River Basin in northern China. In recent years, a large number of wetlands have been degraded with farmland reclamation. In order to alleviate the shortage of water resources in this area, a large number of small and medium reservoirs and ponds have been built in the basin, and flood in the case of historical rainstorm is over. It has a significant influence. It is of great significance to the scientific guidance of flood control dispatching in the basin and the planning of flood control in the basin and its reservoir, and to ensure the safety of flood control in the Songliao basin. This paper chooses the second Songhua River in this paper. The basin above the Fengman reservoir is the research object, the quantitative analysis of the climate variation and land use change and the construction and operation of water conservancy projects in recent years, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the effects of these changes on the runoff generation, the development of flood forecasting model under the influence of water conservancy projects, and the emphasis on the small and medium water conservancy projects to Hong Shuihong The influence law of quantity and process is studied. The method of flood recurrence of historical rainstorm under the influence of water conservancy works is put forward, and the historical rainstorm and flood are reproduced under the operating conditions of current water conservancy projects. The main contents and results are as follows: (1) the sequence clustering method and linear regression test method are used to analyze the hydrology of the river basin (1) And the changing trend of meteorological elements, through the inconsistency of the two changes, the factors that affect the runoff and flood change are obtained. The climatic factors and human activity factors which cause the change of runoff and flood are analyzed deeply. The climatic factors include rainfall, evaporation, temperature, air pressure, sunshine, wind speed and relative humidity. The human activity factors include the changing factors of the underlying surface and the construction and operation factors of water conservancy projects. The trend analysis of these factors is carried out respectively. The results show that the climate change and human activities lead to a certain change in the runoff, especially the operation of water conservancy projects has a great influence on the flood characteristics of the basin, and it is necessary to predict the flood water in the basin. Considering the corresponding influence. (2) a change evaluation model of the underlying surface based on variable fuzzy theory is established, and the land use of 1980s and 2000s is evaluated in two years. The results show that the underlying surface of the two years is extremely similar, but a little change. The model quantitatively analyzed the contribution of climate change and water conservancy project to runoff. The climatic factors accounted for 51%. Water conservancy projects accounted for the impact of water conservancy projects on water conservancy projects in three stages of water conservancy projects, and the relationship between water conservancy project impact and water project storage capacity was established. (3) based on aggregate water (3). (3) According to the idea of the reservoir, many water conservancy projects are aggregated into a reservoir, and the simulation diagram of the storage and release of the aggregate reservoir is made according to the basic regulation of the water conservancy projects. Then, the simulation diagram of the storage and release of the aggregate reservoir is combined with the TOPMODEL model parameters of the natural period flood rate, and a HD-TOPMODEL based on the water conservancy project storage simulation is constructed. The result of the flood forecasting model shows that the accuracy of the HD-TOPMODEL simulation is greatly improved, and compared with the TOPMODEL flood forecasting model of the traditional method of dynamic storage capacity, the HD-TOPMODEL flood forecasting model can reflect the influence process of the water conservancy project, and it can make use of the current reservoir capacity information of the water conservancy project to correct the impact of water conservancy project in real time. Higher simulation precision and better simulation effect. (4) first, the HD-TOPMODEL model parameters under the current water conservancy project are obtained according to the current water conservancy project data of the basin, and the flood process lines of the historical rainstorm above the Fengman reservoir to the current water conservancy process are obtained by the historical rainstorm and flood as the input, and the historical rainstorm is reproduced. The result of the flood process under the condition of water conservancy project shows that the flood and peak value of the historical flood occur under the condition of the current water conservancy project. However, the water conservancy project in the special extreme flood will appear a certain amount of water release, and the influence of secondary disaster caused the threat to the prevention of Hong Anquan, and should pay attention to the prevention.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV122

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