变化环境下的小流域地表径流模拟预报及坝库功能转换研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 15:05

本文选题：好水川流域 + 地表径流　；参考：《宁夏大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：水资源是人类赖以生存和发展的基础和战略性资源,水资源评价是水资源活动与管理中一项十分必要和重要的任务,也是流域水资源高效利用、科学配置及可持续利用的基础。随着气候与下垫面条件的变化,流域水资源的演变规律也随之发生了改变。宁南山区所处的六盘山地区,是黄土高原唯一的绿岛和天然氧吧,更是黄土高原地区气候变化最为敏感和强度的区域。本论文选择位于宁南山区的宁夏隆德县好水川流域为研究区域,通过现场调查、资料分析、定位观测、方法对降水及土地利用变化下的流域地表水资源进行了模拟及预报,主要内容分为五部分。第一部分为研究区概况的分析。通过现场调研及资料收集与分析,对流域的自然地理、水文气象、土地利用、水土流失、水资源开发利用、相关工程运行等状况进行了分析与阐述,并凝练总结了流域水资源开发利用中存在的问题。第二部分为降水资源的评价与时空预报。分析了研究区降水年内年际分布、变化趋势、丰枯状况等规律。选择了1951-2010年降水观测资料,结合马尔科夫与周期外延叠加预报方法,对流域汛期降水量进行了预报并绘制了降水量等值线图,定量分析了汛期降水量的空间分布规律。第三部分为流域径流转化机理分析。通过流域降水及包气带特性分析,确定流域属超渗产流模式,产流类型为超渗地面径流类型,影响因素为降雨量、降雨强度及土壤初始含水量。第四部分为降水及土地利用变化下的流域地表径流模拟分析。在分布式的数字流域模型构建基础上,选择了具有物理基础、符合超渗产流模式的CASC2D模型进行了相关参数的率定与地表径流的模拟。通过设计不同的降雨条件与土地利用方式,定性分析降雨及土地利用变化对地表径流的影响,为流域的水资源及土地利用规划提供指导和依据。第五部分为基于降水等级分析的地表径流预报。选择了适用于流域的SCS集总式模型,结合降水预报成果,建立了适用于本地区的、形象直观的地表径流预报模型,为流域地表水资源趋势分析与研究提供基础依据。在以上模拟研究基础上,构建了坝库功能转换的理论与技术体系并建立了坝库功能定位划分指标,对有必要和条件的工程进行功能转换,从而提高区域水资源可利用量,为坝系水资源高效利用提供指导。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the basis and strategic resources for human survival and development. Water resources evaluation is a very necessary and important task in water resources activities and management, and it is also the basis of efficient utilization, scientific allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources in river basins. With the change of climate and underlying conditions, the evolution of water resources in the basin has also changed. The Liupanshan area in southern Ningxia is the only green island and natural oxygen bar in the Loess Plateau, and is also the most sensitive and intensive area of climate change in the Loess Plateau. In this paper, the Haoshui River Basin of Longde County, Ningxia, which is located in the mountainous area of southern Ningxia, is selected as the study area. The surface water resources of the watershed under the change of precipitation and land use are simulated and forecasted by field investigation, data analysis and location observation. The main content is divided into five parts. The first part is the analysis of the general situation of the research area. Through field investigation and data collection and analysis, this paper analyzes and expounds the natural geography, hydrometeorology, land use, soil erosion, water resources development and utilization, and the operation of related projects, etc. The problems existing in the exploitation and utilization of water resources in the river basin are summarized. The second part is the evaluation and time-space forecast of precipitation resources. The interannual distribution, variation trend, abundance and withered state of precipitation in the study area were analyzed. Based on the observational data of precipitation from 1951 to 2010 and combined with the method of Markov and periodic extension superposition, the precipitation in flood season of the basin is forecasted and the contour map of precipitation is drawn, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in flood season is quantitatively analyzed. The third part is the analysis of runoff transformation mechanism. Through the analysis of the characteristics of precipitation and aeration zone in the basin, it is determined that the watershed belongs to the model of superosmotic runoff, the type of runoff is the type of surface runoff, and the influencing factors are rainfall, rainfall intensity and initial water content of soil. The fourth part is the surface runoff simulation analysis under precipitation and land use change. Based on the construction of distributed digital watershed model, the CASC2D model with physical foundation and superosmotic runoff model was selected to simulate the rate of related parameters and surface runoff. Through the design of different rainfall conditions and land use patterns, the effects of rainfall and land use change on surface runoff are analyzed qualitatively, which provides guidance and basis for water resources and land use planning. The fifth part is the surface runoff forecast based on precipitation grade analysis. The SCS lumped model, which is suitable for river basin, is selected. Combined with the results of precipitation forecast, the surface runoff forecasting model suitable for this area is established, which provides the basis for the analysis and research of the surface water resources trend in the basin. On the basis of the above simulation research, the theoretical and technical system of dam and reservoir function conversion is constructed, and the index of location and division of dam and reservoir function is established. The function conversion of necessary and conditional projects is carried out so as to increase the available quantity of regional water resources. It provides guidance for efficient utilization of water resources in dam system.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】