基于SWAT模型的锡林河流域融雪径流模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 03:25

本文选题：寒旱区 + 流域　；参考：《内蒙古农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：草原河流作为孕育草原生命的摇篮,是维系草原流域水源供给和生态环境最重要的纽带,也是制约草原流域社会经济可持续发展的决定性因素。鉴于寒旱区草原特有的季节性和地区性特色,春季融雪产生的较强径流与夏季降水会形成明显的双.峰型地表径流特征。降水与融雪水是影响该区地表水文特征的主要水文要素,控制着土壤水分的变化,季节性冻土的形成也使得区域水文过程发生改变。近年来,由于受到全球气候变化、降水时空分布不均、人口增长及社会经济快速发展等因素的影响,寒旱区草原水资源供需矛盾日益剧烈,草原流域水资源的短缺已经成为限制草原流域可持续发展的关键障碍。因此,如何运用科学手段构建健康的草原流域水资源利用模式,已经受到社会各界的高度关注。本文以我国北方寒旱区草原中典型流域—锡林河流域为研究对象,结合我国北方寒旱区草原型河流流域的气候特点、下垫面条件及水文过程的特殊性,针对锡林河流域发生季节性冻土现象下的降水—径流特点,通过利用锡林河水文站的年径流频率曲线,采用一定保证率条件下的年径流量作为划分流域丰平枯水年的标准,对锡林河流域历史水文年进行划分。基于此基础,应用统计分析方法对降水、径流进行统计分析,揭示降水、径流年内分配特点及季节性冻土条件下降水-径流特征,以ARCSWAT2012为操作平台,应用地理统计分析方法,对模型建立过程中所需的各数据库进行基础数据整备与参数化,分析影响模型径流模拟精度的主要参数,进行模型的参数率定与结果精度评价,分别对锡林河流域各丰、平、枯水年进行径流模拟,并对其结果进行了检验,提出SWAT模型应用于我国寒旱区草原的可行性及对寒旱区草原流域未来水资源模拟的模型改进建议,从模型在率定期与验证期的模拟结果可以看出SWAT模型对锡林河流域积雪与融雪径流过程模拟符合要求,率定期模型的相关R2为0.79,纳什系数Ene为0.76；验证期时,R2为0.61,Ene为0.53。显然,SWAT模型在中国北方寒旱区的可操作性。结果表明：SWAT模型对细化流域降水-径流分配的径流模拟具有不同的精度,即平水年偏丰水年丰水年偏枯水年枯水年,体现出SWAT模型在中国北方寒旱区丰水年和平水年具有较好的可操作性。
[Abstract]:As the cradle of grassland life, steppe river is the most important link to maintain the water supply and ecological environment in the grassland basin, and it is also the decisive factor that restricts the sustainable development of social economy in the grassland basin. In view of the special seasonal and regional characteristics of the steppe in cold and arid regions, the strong runoff produced by the melting snow in spring and the precipitation in summer will form obvious double. Peak type surface runoff characteristics. Precipitation and snowmelt water are the main hydrological factors that affect the surface hydrological characteristics in this area, which control the change of soil moisture, and the formation of seasonal frozen soil also changes the regional hydrological process. In recent years, due to the influence of global climate change, uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, population growth and rapid social and economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in steppe in cold and arid regions has become increasingly acute. The shortage of water resources in grassland basin has become the key obstacle to restrict the sustainable development of grassland basin. Therefore, how to use scientific means to construct a healthy model of water resources utilization in steppe basins has been highly concerned by all walks of life. This paper takes the Xilin River Basin, a typical watershed in the steppe in the cold and arid region of northern China, as the research object, combining with the climatic characteristics of the steppe river basin in the northern cold and arid region of China, the conditions of the underlying surface and the particularity of the hydrological process. In view of the characteristics of precipitation and runoff in Xilin River Basin under seasonal frozen soil phenomenon, by using the annual runoff frequency curve of Xilin River hydrologic station, the annual runoff under certain guarantee rate is used as the criterion for dividing the year of abundant and dry water in the basin. The historical hydrological years of the Xilin River Basin are divided. Based on this, the statistical analysis of precipitation and runoff is carried out to reveal the characteristics of precipitation and runoff distribution in the year and the characteristics of precipitation and runoff in seasonal frozen soil. Based on ARCSWAT2012, the method of geographic statistical analysis is applied. The basic data and parameterization of each database needed in the process of establishing the model are carried out, and the main parameters that affect the accuracy of the model runoff simulation are analyzed, and the parameter rate of the model and the accuracy of the result are evaluated, respectively, for each abundance and level of the Xilin River Basin. Runoff simulation was carried out in dry years and the results were tested. The feasibility of applying SWAT model to steppe in cold and arid regions of China and suggestions for improving the model for future water resources simulation of steppe basins in cold and arid regions were put forward. From the simulation results of rate periodic and verification period, it can be seen that SWAT model meets the requirements for simulation of snow cover and snowmelt runoff process in Xilin River Basin. The correlation R2 of the rate periodic model is 0.79, the Nash coefficient Ene is 0.76, and the R2 is 0.61g Ene 0.53 in the validation period. It is obvious that the SWAT model is feasible in the cold and arid regions of northern China. The results show that the ratio SWAT model has different accuracy for the runoff simulation of precipitation and runoff distribution in the watershed, that is, the average water year is more abundant than the dry one. It shows that the SWAT model is feasible in the years of abundant water and plain water in the cold and arid regions of northern China.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV121.6

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