BNU-ESM-RCP4.5情景下2018～2060年拒马河河道内生态需水量和麦穗鱼栖息地面积模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 18:29

本文选题：径流量 + 生态需水量　；参考：《湿地科学》2017年02期

【摘要】：选取拒马河为研究对象,采用SWAT模型和River2D模型,利用IPCC第五次报告中的BNU-ESM-RCP4.5模式的模拟数据,对2018~2060年紫荆关水文站附近3 km长的拒马河河段河道内径流量和麦穗鱼(Pseudorasbora parva)栖息地面积进行了模拟和分析。研究结果表明,1956~2015年期间,河道内年径流量呈减少趋势,平均每年径流量减少0.1×108m~3,2018~2060年期间,年径流量呈增加趋势,平均每年径流量增加0.05×108m~3;河道内年生态需水量为4.11×108~7.42×108m~3,模拟的2018~2030年期间河道内年径流量难以满足其生态需水量的需求,而2031~2060年期间的年径流量基本能够满足生态需水量的需求;除秋季外,其它季节的径流量难以满足生态需水量的需求;2018~2060年期间,河道内的麦穗鱼最适物理栖息地面积呈增加趋势,且秋季其栖息地面积明显增加。
[Abstract]:Using the SWAT model and River2D model, the simulation data of BNU-ESM-RCP4.5 model in the fifth IPCC report are used. In this paper, the internal diameter discharge and the habitat area of Pseudorasbora parva, 3 km long, near Zijingguan Hydrologic Station from 2018 to 2060, were simulated and analyzed. The results show that in the period of 1956-2015, the annual runoff in the river shows a decreasing trend, and the average annual runoff decreases 0.1 脳 10 ~ 8m ~ (3) ~ 2060 years, and the annual runoff is increasing. The average annual runoff increased by 0.05 脳 108mm3, and the annual ecological water demand was 4.11 脳 108m ~ 7.42 脳 108mm3. The simulated annual runoff from 2018 to 2030 was difficult to meet the demand of ecological water demand, but the annual runoff from 2031 to 2060 could basically meet the demand of ecological water demand. With the exception of autumn, the runoff in other seasons is difficult to meet the demand of ecological water demand. During the period of 2018 ~ 2060, the area of the optimum physical habitat of wheat ear fish in the river increased, and the area of its habitat increased obviously in autumn.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室;北京应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51579008和51439001) 北京市应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地基金项目资助
【分类号】：Q958;P333

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