玛纳斯河流域用水分析、需水预测和影响因素

发布时间：2018-06-10 08:04

本文选题：玛纳斯河 + 用水效率　；参考：《节水灌溉》2017年07期

【摘要】：从部门结构和地区结构分析了玛纳斯河流域2001-2014年用水现状和趋势,以及各地区用水效率;采用支持向量机回归方法构建需水模型,并进行了短期需水预测,利用主成分法分析需水影响因素。研究期内玛纳斯流域用水量变化不大,其中农业占90%以上,有下降趋势,其他部门用水比例有一定的上升;各地区用水量比较固定,石河子地区占最大比例,其次是沙湾,玛纳斯最少;流域单位用水总产出和第一产业产出都不高,增长缓慢,第二产业单位产出最高,增长迅速;各地区单位用水总产出差异不大;流域用水效率较高。支持向量机回归对玛纳斯河流域需水量的拟合和预测效果较好,模型预测出短期内流域总用水量略微下降。流域人口和经济社会的发展是影响需水量的主要因素,其次是气温和降水等气候环境因素的影响。
[Abstract]:The present situation and trend of water use in Manas River basin from 2001 to 2014 and the water use efficiency of each region are analyzed from the view of sector structure and regional structure, and the model of water demand is constructed by using support vector machine regression method, and the short-term water demand prediction is carried out. Principal component method was used to analyze the influencing factors of water demand. During the period of study, water consumption in Manas basin changed little, in which agriculture accounted for more than 90%, with a decreasing trend, and the proportion of water used in other sectors increased to a certain extent, water consumption in various regions was relatively fixed, and Shihezi region accounted for the largest proportion, followed by Shawan. Manas is the least; the total output per unit water and the output of the primary industry are not high, the growth is slow, the output of the secondary industry is the highest and the growth is fast; the total output of water per unit of each region is not different; the efficiency of water use in the basin is high. Support vector machine regression is effective in fitting and forecasting water demand in Manas River basin, and the model predicts that the total water consumption of Manas River Basin will decrease slightly in the short term. The development of population, economy and society are the main factors affecting water demand, followed by climatic and environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation.
【作者单位】：石河子大学信息科学与技术学院;新疆兵团勘测设计院一分院;
【基金】：石河子大学高层次人才基金项目(RCZX201326) 校级人文社科中青年人才培育基金项目(RWSK13-Y33) 兵团社会科学基金项目(14QN09)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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