系统动力学模型在成都市水生态承载力评估方面的应用

发布时间：2018-06-13 16:03

本文选题：SD模型 + 水生态承载力　；参考：《南水北调与水利科技》2017年04期

【摘要】：基于成都市水生态现状,为提高其水生态承载力,促进经济发展和提高人民生活水平,运用系统动力学(SD)的方法,建立了成都市水生态-经济-人口-水资源-水环境的耦合系统,模拟了现状延续型、节约用水型、污染防治型和综合协调型四种情景模式。模拟结果显示:在模拟年限内(2014年-2020年),现状延续型和污染防治型未能有效降低水生态承载限制系数,水生态问题将进一步加剧;节约用水型和综合防治型都可以降低水生态承载限制系数,但节约用水型不能显著减低该系数,只有通过节约用水和污染防治相结合的综合防治型,才可以更加有效的减低该系数,该情景模式是提高水生态承载力的最佳模式;到2020年,该情景模式下成都市的水生态承载限制系数下降为0.297,与2010年的相比,下降了59.4%。研究结果可为成都市水生态保护提供技术依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the present situation of water ecology in Chengdu, in order to improve its water ecological carrying capacity, promote economic development and improve people's living standard, the method of system dynamics (SDD) is used. The coupling system of water ecology, economy, population, water resources and water environment in Chengdu was established, and four scenarios were simulated, such as current situation continuation, water saving, pollution prevention and control and comprehensive coordination. The simulation results show that in the simulated years (2014-2020), the status quo continuation and pollution control can not effectively reduce the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity, and the water ecological problems will be further aggravated; Both water-saving and integrated control can reduce the limit coefficient of ecological carrying capacity of water, but the water-saving type can not significantly reduce the coefficient, only through the combination of water conservation and pollution prevention and control. Only then can the coefficient be reduced more effectively, the scenario model is the best model to improve the ecological carrying capacity of water, and by 2020, the limit coefficient of the ecological carrying capacity of water in Chengdu is reduced to 0.297, which is 59.4% lower than that in 2010. The results can provide technical basis for the ecological protection of water in Chengdu.
【作者单位】：四川大学水利水电学院;
【分类号】：TV213.4

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