气候变化对湖泊设计洪水位的可能影响——以平原湖泊联合调蓄为例

发布时间：2018-06-14 06:53

本文选题：LARS-WG + 气候变化　；参考：《中国农村水利水电》2016年08期

【摘要】：湖泊防洪设计水位是湖泊保护、工程规划和水资源高效利用的重要依据,但气候变化对湖泊防洪设计水位变化的影响并没有得到足够的重视。为研究不同气候变化情景对湖泊防洪设计水位的影响,根据大气环流模式CCSM3的结果,利用随机天气发生器LARS-WG对基准期气候数据进行分析并生成2011-2040年30年逐日气象资料。同时结合暴雨管理模型(SWMM)计算了南方平原湖泊联合调蓄情景下的设计洪水位,并对闸门和泵站的流量过程进行了模拟计算。计算结果表明,基准期和A1B、A2和B1三种排放情景下的设计暴雨值存在显著差异,由此导致了设计洪水位存在显著差异;在湖泊联合调蓄情景下,小南海、庆寿寺湖和马淹湖等3个湖泊的设计洪水位变化特征不一致,其中,小南海湖泊变化较为显著,而庆寿寺湖则不明显。为进一步分析设计洪水位的影响因素,对结果进行多因子误差分析。分析结果表明,地点、重现期两个因素对设计洪水位的影响非常显著,情景模式的影响也比较大,但比前两者略弱;地点、重现期、情景模式3个因素两两组合造成的影响不显著。根据对未来设计洪水位和闸门、泵站流量的动态分析,建议做好进一步的湖泊防洪规划工作。
[Abstract]:The design water level of lake flood control is an important basis for lake protection, engineering planning and efficient utilization of water resources. However, the influence of climate change on lake flood control design water level change has not been paid enough attention to. In order to study the effect of different climate change scenarios on the design water level of lake flood control, according to the results of CCSM3, a random weather generator LARS-WG is used to analyze the climate data of the base period and generate daily meteorological data for 30 years from 2011-2040. At the same time, combined with the rainstorm management model (SWMMM), the design flood water level was calculated under the combined regulation and storage scenario of lakes in the Southern Plain, and the flow process of the sluice gates and pumping stations was simulated and calculated. The calculated results show that there are significant differences in the design rainstorm values between the base period and the A1BN A2 and B1 emission scenarios, resulting in significant differences in the design flood water levels, and in the small South China Sea under the combined lake storage scenario. The variation characteristics of design flood water level of Qingshousi Lake and Mayan Lake are different, among which, the change of Xiaongnanhai Lake is more significant, but Qingshousi Lake is not obvious. In order to further analyze the influencing factors of the design flood water level, the multi-factor error analysis of the results is carried out. The results show that the impact of two factors on the design flood water level is very significant, and the influence of scenario model is also greater than that of the former two factors. The effect caused by the combination of three factors of scenario mode is not significant. Based on the dynamic analysis of flood level, sluice gate and pumping station discharge in the future, it is suggested that further flood control planning should be done.
【作者单位】：水电与数字化工程学院华中科技大学;水资源与农村水利研究所湖北省水利水电科学研究院;
【分类号】：P467;TV87

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