洪水二维变量重现期的探讨

发布时间：2018-06-15 13:26

本文选题：洪水 + 重现期　；参考：《水力发电学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：洪水二维变量(洪峰x和洪量y)重现期涉及工程防洪计算和评价,历来受到高度重视。重现期的推求、洪水事件构成及匹配理念三者紧密相关。本文基于Copula函数论述并推求了四种洪水重现期("一维变量"重现期N_1、"和"事件重现期N_2、"积"事件重现期N_3、匹配重现期N4)的理念及其计算,重点阐明了N_4。以岷江支流马边河马边水文站为例,对比分析各重现期之间关系,结果表明:对于二变量一组取值(x0,y0),当x0和y0均较大或较小时,大小顺序为N_3N_4N_1N_2;当x0较大,y0较小或y0较大,x0较小时,会出现N_3较N_4明显大得多,且N_4可能小于N_1的情况。应用时需注意Copula函数一些特殊性质,应结合工程特性和要求等选定防洪计算所需的匹配值。
[Abstract]:The recurrence period of two-dimensional flood variables (Hong Feng x and flood volume y) involves engineering flood control calculation and evaluation, and has always been attached great importance to. The recurrence period, flood event composition and matching idea are closely related. Based on Copula function, this paper discusses and deduces the concepts and calculations of four flood recurrence periods ("one-dimensional variable" recurrence period N _ s _ 1, "and" event recurrence period N _ 2, "product" event recurrence period N _ T _ 3, matching recurrence period N _ 4), with emphasis on N4s. Taking the Mabian Hemabian hydrologic station of Minjiang tributaries as an example, the relationship between each recurrence period is compared and analyzed. The results show that for a group of two variables, the values of x _ 0 and y _ 0 are larger or smaller. The order of size is N _ 3N _ 4N _ 1N _ 2; when x _ 0 is larger than Y _ 0 or y _ 0 is smaller, there will be a situation where N3 is much larger than NSP _ 4, and N _ S _ 4 may be smaller than N _ S _ 1. Some special properties of Copula function should be paid attention to in application, and the matching value for flood control calculation should be selected in combination with engineering characteristics and requirements.
【作者单位】：四川大学水利水电学院;四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点室;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401903)
【分类号】：TV122

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